

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Villarreal win with a probability of 59.78%. A draw had a probability of 21.8% and a win for Valencia had a probability of 18.46%.
The most likely scoreline for a Villarreal win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.63%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.25%) and 2-1 (9.94%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.3%), while for a Valencia win it was 0-1 (5.34%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 10.3% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Villarreal | Draw | Valencia |
| 59.78% ( | 21.76% ( | 18.46% ( |
| Both teams to score 53.04% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 55.35% ( | 44.64% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 32.99% ( | 67.01% ( |
| Villarreal Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 85.46% ( | 14.53% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 57.43% ( | 42.56% ( |
| Valencia Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 62.06% ( | 37.94% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 25.29% ( | 74.71% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| Villarreal | Draw | Valencia |
| 1-0 @ 10.63% ( 2-0 @ 10.25% ( 2-1 @ 9.94% ( 3-0 @ 6.59% ( 3-1 @ 6.39% ( 4-0 @ 3.18% ( 3-2 @ 3.1% ( 4-1 @ 3.08% ( 4-2 @ 1.49% ( 5-0 @ 1.23% ( 5-1 @ 1.19% ( Other @ 2.7% Total : 59.77% | 1-1 @ 10.3% ( 0-0 @ 5.51% ( 2-2 @ 4.82% ( 3-3 @ 1% ( Other @ 0.13% Total : 21.76% | 0-1 @ 5.34% ( 1-2 @ 5% ( 0-2 @ 2.59% ( 1-3 @ 1.61% ( 2-3 @ 1.56% ( Other @ 2.36% Total : 18.46% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| C | Barcelona | 38 | 28 | 4 | 6 | 102 | 39 | 63 | 88 |
| 2 | Real Madrid | 38 | 26 | 6 | 6 | 78 | 38 | 40 | 84 |
| 3 | Atletico MadridAtletico | 38 | 22 | 10 | 6 | 68 | 30 | 38 | 76 |
| 4 | Athletic Bilbao | 38 | 19 | 13 | 6 | 54 | 29 | 25 | 70 |
| 5 | Villarreal | 38 | 20 | 10 | 8 | 71 | 51 | 20 | 70 |
| 6 | Real BetisBetis | 38 | 16 | 12 | 10 | 57 | 50 | 7 | 60 |
| 7 | Celta Vigo | 38 | 16 | 7 | 15 | 59 | 57 | 2 | 55 |
| 8 | Osasuna | 38 | 12 | 16 | 10 | 48 | 52 | -4 | 52 |
| 9 | Rayo Vallecano | 38 | 13 | 13 | 12 | 41 | 45 | -4 | 52 |
| 10 | Mallorca | 38 | 13 | 9 | 16 | 35 | 44 | -9 | 48 |
| 11 | Valencia | 38 | 11 | 13 | 14 | 44 | 54 | -10 | 46 |
| 12 | Real Sociedad | 38 | 13 | 7 | 18 | 35 | 46 | -11 | 46 |
| 13 | Getafe | 38 | 11 | 9 | 18 | 34 | 39 | -5 | 42 |
| 14 | AlavesAlaves | 38 | 10 | 12 | 16 | 38 | 48 | -10 | 42 |
| 15 | Espanyol | 38 | 11 | 9 | 18 | 40 | 51 | -11 | 42 |
| 16 | Sevilla | 38 | 10 | 11 | 17 | 42 | 55 | -13 | 41 |
| 17 | GironaGirona | 38 | 11 | 8 | 19 | 44 | 60 | -16 | 41 |
| 18 | Leganes | 38 | 9 | 13 | 16 | 39 | 56 | -17 | 40 |
| R | Las PalmasLas Palmas | 38 | 8 | 8 | 22 | 40 | 61 | -21 | 32 |
| R | Real ValladolidValladolid | 38 | 4 | 4 | 30 | 26 | 90 | -64 | 16 |
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