

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Villarreal win with a probability of 38.89%. A win for Valencia had a probability of 35.28% and a draw had a probability of 25.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Villarreal win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.36%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.5%) and 0-2 (6.49%). The likeliest Valencia win was 1-0 (8.83%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.24%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.2% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Valencia | Draw | Villarreal |
| 35.28% ( | 25.81% ( | 38.89% ( |
| Both teams to score 54.76% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 50.54% ( | 49.45% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 28.5% ( | 71.49% ( |
| Valencia Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 72.98% ( | 27.01% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 37.63% ( | 62.36% ( |
| Villarreal Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 75.02% ( | 24.97% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 40.37% ( | 59.62% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| Valencia | Draw | Villarreal |
| 1-0 @ 8.83% ( 2-1 @ 8.02% ( 2-0 @ 5.78% ( 3-1 @ 3.5% ( 3-0 @ 2.52% ( 3-2 @ 2.43% ( 4-1 @ 1.15% ( Other @ 3.07% Total : 35.28% | 1-1 @ 12.24% ( 0-0 @ 6.74% ( 2-2 @ 5.56% ( 3-3 @ 1.12% ( Other @ 0.14% Total : 25.8% | 0-1 @ 9.36% ( 1-2 @ 8.5% ( 0-2 @ 6.49% ( 1-3 @ 3.93% ( 0-3 @ 3% ( 2-3 @ 2.57% ( 1-4 @ 1.36% ( 0-4 @ 1.04% ( Other @ 2.64% Total : 38.89% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| C | Barcelona | 37 | 28 | 4 | 5 | 69 | 18 | 51 | 88 |
| 2 | Real Madrid | 37 | 24 | 5 | 8 | 74 | 35 | 39 | 77 |
| 3 | Atletico MadridAtletico | 37 | 23 | 7 | 7 | 68 | 31 | 37 | 76 |
| 4 | Real Sociedad | 37 | 20 | 8 | 9 | 49 | 34 | 15 | 68 |
| 5 | Villarreal | 37 | 19 | 6 | 12 | 57 | 38 | 19 | 63 |
| 6 | Real BetisBetis | 37 | 17 | 8 | 12 | 45 | 40 | 5 | 59 |
| 7 | Osasuna | 37 | 14 | 8 | 15 | 35 | 41 | -6 | 50 |
| 8 | Athletic Bilbao | 37 | 14 | 8 | 15 | 46 | 42 | 4 | 50 |
| 9 | GironaGirona | 37 | 13 | 10 | 14 | 57 | 53 | 4 | 49 |
| 10 | Rayo Vallecano | 37 | 13 | 10 | 14 | 45 | 50 | -5 | 49 |
| 11 | Sevilla | 37 | 13 | 10 | 14 | 46 | 52 | -6 | 49 |
| 12 | Mallorca | 37 | 13 | 8 | 16 | 34 | 43 | -9 | 47 |
| 13 | Valencia | 37 | 11 | 8 | 18 | 41 | 44 | -3 | 41 |
| 14 | CadizCadiz | 37 | 10 | 11 | 16 | 29 | 52 | -23 | 41 |
| 15 | Getafe | 37 | 10 | 11 | 16 | 34 | 45 | -11 | 41 |
| 16 | Almeria | 37 | 11 | 7 | 19 | 46 | 62 | -16 | 40 |
| 17 | Celta Vigo | 37 | 10 | 10 | 17 | 41 | 52 | -11 | 40 |
| 18 | Real ValladolidValladolid | 37 | 11 | 6 | 20 | 33 | 63 | -30 | 39 |
| R | Espanyol | 37 | 8 | 12 | 17 | 49 | 66 | -17 | 36 |
| R | ElcheElche | 37 | 5 | 9 | 23 | 29 | 66 | -37 | 24 |
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