Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Villarreal win with a probability of 51.11%. A draw had a probability of 25.1% and a win for Mallorca had a probability of 23.83%.
The most likely scoreline for a Villarreal win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.86%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.49%) and 2-0 (9.46%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.9%), while for a Mallorca win it was 0-1 (7.47%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Villarreal would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Villarreal | Draw | Mallorca | 
| 51.11% (  -0.09) | 25.05% (  0.05) | 23.83% (  0.04) | 
| Both teams to score 50.48% (  -0.11) | 
| Goals | 
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 
| 48.11% (  -0.17) | 51.89% (  0.17) | 
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 | 
| 26.36% (  -0.14) | 73.64% (  0.14) | 
| Villarreal Goals | 
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 | 
| 79.69% (  -0.1) | 20.3% (  0.1) | 
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 47.32% (  -0.17) | 52.68% (  0.17) | 
| Mallorca Goals | 
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 | 
| 63.34% (  -0.06) | 36.65% (  0.06) | 
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 26.56% (  -0.06) | 73.44% (  0.06) | 
| Score Analysis | 
| Villarreal | Draw | Mallorca | 
| 1-0 @ 11.86% (  0.04) 2-1 @ 9.49% (  -0.01) 2-0 @ 9.46% (  0) 3-1 @ 5.05% (  -0.02) 3-0 @ 5.03% (  -0.01) 3-2 @ 2.53% (  -0.02) 4-1 @ 2.01% (  -0.02) 4-0 @ 2% (  -0.01) 4-2 @ 1.01% (  -0.01) Other @ 2.67% Total : 51.11% | 1-1 @ 11.9% (  0.02) 0-0 @ 7.44% (  0.05) 2-2 @ 4.76% (  -0.01) Other @ 0.94% Total : 25.04% | 0-1 @ 7.47% (  0.04) 1-2 @ 5.98% (  0) 0-2 @ 3.75% (  0.01) 1-3 @ 2% (  -0) 2-3 @ 1.59% (  -0.01) 0-3 @ 1.25% (  0) Other @ 1.79% Total : 23.83% | 

| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| C | Barcelona | 38 | 28 | 4 | 6 | 102 | 39 | 63 | 88 | 
| 2 | Real Madrid | 38 | 26 | 6 | 6 | 78 | 38 | 40 | 84 | 
| 3 | Atletico MadridAtletico | 38 | 22 | 10 | 6 | 68 | 30 | 38 | 76 | 
| 4 | Athletic Bilbao | 38 | 19 | 13 | 6 | 54 | 29 | 25 | 70 | 
| 5 | Villarreal | 38 | 20 | 10 | 8 | 71 | 51 | 20 | 70 | 
| 6 | Real BetisBetis | 38 | 16 | 12 | 10 | 57 | 50 | 7 | 60 | 
| 7 | Celta Vigo | 38 | 16 | 7 | 15 | 59 | 57 | 2 | 55 | 
| 8 | Osasuna | 38 | 12 | 16 | 10 | 48 | 52 | -4 | 52 | 
| 9 | Rayo Vallecano | 38 | 13 | 13 | 12 | 41 | 45 | -4 | 52 | 
| 10 | Mallorca | 38 | 13 | 9 | 16 | 35 | 44 | -9 | 48 | 
| 11 | Valencia | 38 | 11 | 13 | 14 | 44 | 54 | -10 | 46 | 
| 12 | Real Sociedad | 38 | 13 | 7 | 18 | 35 | 46 | -11 | 46 | 
| 13 | Getafe | 38 | 11 | 9 | 18 | 34 | 39 | -5 | 42 | 
| 14 | AlavesAlaves | 38 | 10 | 12 | 16 | 38 | 48 | -10 | 42 | 
| 15 | Espanyol | 38 | 11 | 9 | 18 | 40 | 51 | -11 | 42 | 
| 16 | Sevilla | 38 | 10 | 11 | 17 | 42 | 55 | -13 | 41 | 
| 17 | GironaGirona | 38 | 11 | 8 | 19 | 44 | 60 | -16 | 41 | 
| 18 | Leganes | 38 | 9 | 13 | 16 | 39 | 56 | -17 | 40 | 
| R | Las PalmasLas Palmas | 38 | 8 | 8 | 22 | 40 | 61 | -21 | 32 | 
| R | Real ValladolidValladolid | 38 | 4 | 4 | 30 | 26 | 90 | -64 | 16 | 
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