Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Gateshead win with a probability of 43.66%. A win for Rochdale had a probability of 31.61% and a draw had a probability of 24.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Gateshead win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.08%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.98%) and 0-2 (7.02%). The likeliest Rochdale win was 2-1 (7.52%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.61%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 7.4% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Rochdale | Draw | Gateshead |
| 31.61% ( | 24.74% ( | 43.66% ( |
| Both teams to score 57.38% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 54.41% ( | 45.59% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 32.08% ( | 67.92% ( |
| Rochdale Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 72.59% ( | 27.41% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 37.11% ( | 62.89% ( |
| Gateshead Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 79.05% ( | 20.95% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 46.3% ( | 53.7% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| Rochdale | Draw | Gateshead |
| 2-1 @ 7.52% ( 1-0 @ 7.43% ( 2-0 @ 4.81% ( 3-1 @ 3.24% ( 3-2 @ 2.53% ( 3-0 @ 2.08% ( 4-1 @ 1.05% ( Other @ 2.95% Total : 31.61% | 1-1 @ 11.61% ( 2-2 @ 5.88% ( 0-0 @ 5.74% ( 3-3 @ 1.32% ( Other @ 0.18% Total : 24.73% | 1-2 @ 9.08% ( 0-1 @ 8.98% ( 0-2 @ 7.02% ( 1-3 @ 4.73% ( 0-3 @ 3.66% ( 2-3 @ 3.06% ( 1-4 @ 1.85% ( 0-4 @ 1.43% ( 2-4 @ 1.2% ( Other @ 2.67% Total : 43.66% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Barnet | 39 | 27 | 7 | 5 | 81 | 32 | 49 | 88 |
| 2 | York City | 38 | 22 | 8 | 8 | 70 | 37 | 33 | 74 |
| 3 | Forest Green RoversForest Green | 39 | 19 | 15 | 5 | 59 | 35 | 24 | 72 |
| 4 | Oldham AthleticOldham | 39 | 17 | 15 | 7 | 57 | 40 | 17 | 66 |
| 5 | Halifax TownHalifax | 38 | 17 | 11 | 10 | 46 | 36 | 10 | 62 |
| 6 | Gateshead | 39 | 17 | 9 | 13 | 66 | 54 | 12 | 60 |
| 7 | Rochdale | 36 | 16 | 9 | 11 | 52 | 34 | 18 | 57 |
| 8 | Southend UnitedSouthend | 38 | 14 | 14 | 10 | 50 | 43 | 7 | 56 |
| 9 | AltrinchamAltrincham | 38 | 15 | 10 | 13 | 57 | 48 | 9 | 55 |
| 10 | Tamworth | 39 | 14 | 12 | 13 | 52 | 58 | -6 | 54 |
| 11 | Eastleigh | 39 | 13 | 14 | 12 | 53 | 49 | 4 | 53 |
| 12 | Sutton UnitedSutton | 38 | 13 | 12 | 13 | 50 | 51 | -1 | 51 |
| 13 | Hartlepool UnitedHartlepool | 39 | 11 | 16 | 12 | 48 | 49 | -1 | 49 |
| 14 | Yeovil TownYeovil | 39 | 13 | 10 | 16 | 44 | 51 | -7 | 49 |
| 15 | Braintree TownBraintree | 39 | 13 | 9 | 17 | 44 | 51 | -7 | 48 |
| 16 | Aldershot TownAldershot | 37 | 11 | 14 | 12 | 58 | 60 | -2 | 47 |
| 17 | Solihull MoorsSolihull | 38 | 13 | 8 | 17 | 53 | 58 | -5 | 47 |
| 18 | WealdstoneWealdstone | 37 | 10 | 12 | 15 | 47 | 61 | -14 | 42 |
| 19 | Woking | 37 | 9 | 14 | 14 | 38 | 51 | -13 | 41 |
| 20 | Dagenham & RedbridgeDag & Red | 39 | 9 | 13 | 17 | 50 | 57 | -7 | 40 |
| 21 | Fylde | 38 | 11 | 6 | 21 | 46 | 70 | -24 | 39 |
| 22 | Maidenhead UnitedMaidenhead | 39 | 10 | 8 | 21 | 44 | 70 | -26 | 38 |
| 23 | Boston UnitedBoston | 37 | 9 | 10 | 18 | 40 | 57 | -17 | 37 |
| 24 | Ebbsfleet | 39 | 2 | 12 | 25 | 30 | 83 | -53 | 18 |
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