

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Gateshead win with a probability of 49.55%. A win for Rochdale had a probability of 27.5% and a draw had a probability of 23%.
The most likely scoreline for a Gateshead win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.5%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.03%) and 2-0 (7.3%). The likeliest Rochdale win was 1-2 (6.81%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.45%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 5.8% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Gateshead | Draw | Rochdale |
| 49.55% ( | 22.95% ( | 27.5% ( |
| Both teams to score 60.96% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 60.29% ( | 39.71% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 37.93% ( | 62.06% ( |
| Gateshead Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 83.75% ( | 16.25% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 54.22% ( | 45.78% ( |
| Rochdale Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 72.79% ( | 27.21% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 37.38% ( | 62.62% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| Gateshead | Draw | Rochdale |
| 2-1 @ 9.5% ( 1-0 @ 8.03% ( 2-0 @ 7.3% ( 3-1 @ 5.76% ( 3-0 @ 4.42% ( 3-2 @ 3.75% ( 4-1 @ 2.61% ( 4-0 @ 2.01% ( 4-2 @ 1.7% ( 5-1 @ 0.95% ( Other @ 3.52% Total : 49.55% | 1-1 @ 10.45% ( 2-2 @ 6.18% ( 0-0 @ 4.42% ( 3-3 @ 1.63% ( Other @ 0.26% Total : 22.94% | 1-2 @ 6.81% ( 0-1 @ 5.75% ( 0-2 @ 3.75% ( 1-3 @ 2.95% ( 2-3 @ 2.68% ( 0-3 @ 1.63% ( 1-4 @ 0.96% ( Other @ 2.97% Total : 27.5% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Barnet | 36 | 24 | 7 | 5 | 78 | 32 | 46 | 79 |
| 2 | York City | 35 | 21 | 7 | 7 | 67 | 34 | 33 | 70 |
| 3 | Forest Green RoversForest Green | 35 | 18 | 13 | 4 | 54 | 28 | 26 | 67 |
| 4 | Gateshead | 35 | 17 | 9 | 9 | 64 | 44 | 20 | 60 |
| 5 | Oldham AthleticOldham | 35 | 15 | 13 | 7 | 51 | 38 | 13 | 58 |
| 6 | Halifax TownHalifax | 34 | 15 | 11 | 8 | 42 | 33 | 9 | 56 |
| 7 | AltrinchamAltrincham | 33 | 15 | 10 | 8 | 55 | 39 | 16 | 55 |
| 8 | Eastleigh | 35 | 13 | 12 | 10 | 48 | 41 | 7 | 51 |
| 9 | Rochdale | 31 | 14 | 7 | 10 | 41 | 28 | 13 | 49 |
| 10 | Southend UnitedSouthend | 35 | 12 | 13 | 10 | 44 | 39 | 5 | 49 |
| 11 | Tamworth | 36 | 12 | 11 | 13 | 46 | 56 | -10 | 47 |
| 12 | Yeovil TownYeovil | 35 | 12 | 10 | 13 | 41 | 46 | -5 | 46 |
| 13 | Sutton UnitedSutton | 33 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 45 | 44 | 1 | 44 |
| 14 | Hartlepool UnitedHartlepool | 36 | 10 | 14 | 12 | 42 | 46 | -4 | 44 |
| 15 | Solihull MoorsSolihull | 35 | 12 | 7 | 16 | 50 | 53 | -3 | 43 |
| 16 | Woking | 34 | 9 | 13 | 12 | 36 | 47 | -11 | 40 |
| 17 | Braintree TownBraintree | 35 | 10 | 9 | 16 | 37 | 48 | -11 | 39 |
| 18 | Aldershot TownAldershot | 33 | 8 | 13 | 12 | 49 | 55 | -6 | 37 |
| 19 | Dagenham & RedbridgeDag & Red | 35 | 8 | 12 | 15 | 47 | 52 | -5 | 36 |
| 20 | Fylde | 34 | 10 | 6 | 18 | 42 | 65 | -23 | 36 |
| 21 | WealdstoneWealdstone | 33 | 8 | 11 | 14 | 41 | 54 | -13 | 35 |
| 22 | Maidenhead UnitedMaidenhead | 35 | 9 | 7 | 19 | 41 | 67 | -26 | 34 |
| 23 | Boston UnitedBoston | 32 | 6 | 9 | 17 | 30 | 49 | -19 | 27 |
| 24 | Ebbsfleet | 36 | 1 | 11 | 24 | 25 | 78 | -53 | 14 |
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