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Champions League | Round of 16 | 1st Leg
Mar 5, 2025 at 8pm UK
Allianz Arena
Leverkusen logo

Bayern
3 - 0
B. Leverkusen

Kane (9', 75' pen.), Musiala (54')
Laimer (39'), Goretzka (50')
FT(HT: 1-0)

Mukiele (39'), Tapsoba (73'), Tah (74')
Mukiele (62')

The Match

Match Report

Vincent Kompany's Bayern Munich put on an attacking display in their Champions League round of 16 first leg against Bayer Leverkusen on Wednesday night.

Preview

Sports Mole previews Wednesday's Champions League clash between Bayern Munich and Bayer Leverkusen, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Bayern Munich

All competitions
Champions League
Last Game: Stuttgart 1-3 Bayern
Friday, February 28 at 7.30pm in Bundesliga

Bayer Leverkusen

All competitions
Champions League
Last Game: Frankfurt 1-4 B. Leverkusen
Saturday, March 1 at 5.30pm in Bundesliga

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bayern Munich win with a probability of 61.48%. A draw had a probability of 20.3% and a win for Bayer Leverkusen had a probability of 18.23%.

The most likely scoreline for a Bayern Munich win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.9%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.27%) and 1-0 (8.75%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.34%), while for a Bayer Leverkusen win it was 1-2 (4.98%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 6.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Bayern Munich would win this match.

Result
Bayern MunichDrawBayer Leverkusen
61.48% (0.388 0.39)20.28% (-0.097000000000001 -0.1)18.23% (-0.294 -0.29)
Both teams to score 57.74% (-0.228 -0.23)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
61.76% (-0.035000000000004 -0.04)38.24% (0.033000000000001 0.03)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
39.48% (-0.036000000000001 -0.04)60.51% (0.033999999999999 0.03)
Bayern Munich Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
88% (0.096999999999994 0.1)11.99% (-0.1 -0.1)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
62.56% (0.205 0.2)37.43% (-0.208 -0.21)
Bayer Leverkusen Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
65.61% (-0.331 -0.33)34.38% (0.33000000000001 0.33)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
28.9% (-0.357 -0.36)71.09% (0.354 0.35)
Score Analysis
    Bayern Munich 61.48%
    Bayer Leverkusen 18.23%
    Draw 20.28%
Bayern MunichDrawBayer Leverkusen
2-1 @ 9.9% (0.0020000000000007 0)
2-0 @ 9.27% (0.084999999999999 0.08)
1-0 @ 8.75% (0.047000000000001 0.05)
3-1 @ 7% (0.028 0.03)
3-0 @ 6.56% (0.085 0.09)
3-2 @ 3.74% (-0.019 -0.02)
4-1 @ 3.71% (0.029 0.03)
4-0 @ 3.48% (0.058 0.06)
4-2 @ 1.98% (-0.002 -0)
5-1 @ 1.57% (0.018 0.02)
5-0 @ 1.47% (0.03 0.03)
Other @ 4.05%
Total : 61.48%
1-1 @ 9.34% (-0.033000000000001 -0.03)
2-2 @ 5.29% (-0.047 -0.05)
0-0 @ 4.12% (0.0059999999999993 0.01)
3-3 @ 1.33% (-0.019 -0.02)
Other @ 0.21%
Total : 20.28%
1-2 @ 4.98% (-0.064 -0.06)
0-1 @ 4.4% (-0.033 -0.03)
0-2 @ 2.35% (-0.039 -0.04)
2-3 @ 1.88% (-0.034 -0.03)
1-3 @ 1.77% (-0.039 -0.04)
Other @ 2.84%
Total : 18.23%

How you voted: Bayern vs B. Leverkusen

Bayern Munich
59.6%
Draw
22.5%
Bayer Leverkusen
18.0%
334
Head to Head
Feb 15, 2025 5.30pm
Gameweek 22
B. Leverkusen
0-0
Bayern
Hincapie (11'), Tapsoba (90+4')
Ito (39'), Pavlovic (53'), Upamecano (74')
> Match Report
Dec 3, 2024 7.45pm
Round of 16
Bayern
0-1
B. Leverkusen

Upamecano (13'), Goretzka (52')
Neuer (17')
Tella (69')
Tapsoba (13'), Wirtz (22'), Kovar (78')
> Preview
Sep 28, 2024 5.30pm
Gameweek 5
Bayern
1-1
B. Leverkusen
Pavlovic (39')
Upamecano (23')
Andrich (31')
Alonso (23'), Andrich (32'), Wirtz (57'), Grimaldo (71')
> Preview
Feb 10, 2024 5.30pm
Gameweek 21
B. Leverkusen
3-0
Bayern
Stanisic (18'), Grimaldo (50'), Frimpong (90+5')
Tapsoba (64'), Adli (77'), Hradecky (83')

Boey (36'), Goretzka (62')
> Match Report
Sep 15, 2023 7.30pm
Gameweek 4
Bayern
2-2
B. Leverkusen
Kane (7'), Goretzka (86')
Tuchel (25')
Grimaldo (24'), Palacios (90+4' pen.)
Hofmann (34'), Wirtz (47'), Tapsoba (69')
> Preview