

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sutton United win with a probability of 38.09%. A win for Rochdale had a probability of 37.51% and a draw had a probability of 24.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sutton United win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.44%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.61%) and 0-2 (5.69%). The likeliest Rochdale win was 2-1 (8.36%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.28%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.4% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Rochdale | Draw | Sutton United |
| 37.51% ( | 24.4% ( | 38.09% ( |
| Both teams to score 59.96% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 57.18% ( | 42.82% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 34.77% ( | 65.23% ( |
| Rochdale Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 77.29% ( | 22.72% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 43.62% ( | 56.38% ( |
| Sutton United Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 77.58% ( | 22.42% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 44.06% ( | 55.94% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| Rochdale | Draw | Sutton United |
| 2-1 @ 8.36% ( 1-0 @ 7.55% ( 2-0 @ 5.59% ( 3-1 @ 4.13% ( 3-2 @ 3.09% ( 3-0 @ 2.76% ( 4-1 @ 1.53% ( 4-2 @ 1.15% ( 4-0 @ 1.02% ( Other @ 2.32% Total : 37.51% | 1-1 @ 11.28% ( 2-2 @ 6.25% ( 0-0 @ 5.09% ( 3-3 @ 1.54% ( Other @ 0.23% Total : 24.4% | 1-2 @ 8.44% ( 0-1 @ 7.61% ( 0-2 @ 5.69% ( 1-3 @ 4.21% ( 2-3 @ 3.12% ( 0-3 @ 2.84% ( 1-4 @ 1.57% ( 2-4 @ 1.17% ( 0-4 @ 1.06% ( Other @ 2.39% Total : 38.09% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Barnet | 41 | 28 | 7 | 6 | 85 | 35 | 50 | 91 |
| 2 | York City | 41 | 25 | 8 | 8 | 80 | 38 | 42 | 83 |
| 3 | Forest Green RoversForest Green | 41 | 20 | 15 | 6 | 61 | 37 | 24 | 75 |
| 4 | Oldham AthleticOldham | 40 | 17 | 15 | 8 | 57 | 41 | 16 | 66 |
| 5 | Halifax TownHalifax | 41 | 17 | 13 | 11 | 47 | 38 | 9 | 64 |
| 6 | Gateshead | 41 | 18 | 9 | 14 | 69 | 58 | 11 | 63 |
| 7 | Rochdale | 39 | 17 | 10 | 12 | 57 | 39 | 18 | 61 |
| 8 | AltrinchamAltrincham | 41 | 16 | 12 | 13 | 62 | 52 | 10 | 60 |
| 9 | Southend UnitedSouthend | 41 | 15 | 15 | 11 | 52 | 47 | 5 | 60 |
| 10 | Tamworth | 41 | 15 | 12 | 14 | 55 | 61 | -6 | 57 |
| 11 | Hartlepool UnitedHartlepool | 41 | 13 | 16 | 12 | 52 | 51 | 1 | 55 |
| 12 | Eastleigh | 41 | 13 | 15 | 13 | 54 | 52 | 2 | 54 |
| 13 | Aldershot TownAldershot | 40 | 13 | 14 | 13 | 63 | 65 | -2 | 53 |
| 14 | Sutton UnitedSutton | 40 | 13 | 13 | 14 | 52 | 54 | -2 | 52 |
| 15 | Yeovil TownYeovil | 41 | 14 | 10 | 17 | 46 | 53 | -7 | 52 |
| 16 | Braintree TownBraintree | 41 | 14 | 9 | 18 | 47 | 54 | -7 | 51 |
| 17 | Solihull MoorsSolihull | 40 | 13 | 9 | 18 | 54 | 60 | -6 | 48 |
| 18 | WealdstoneWealdstone | 41 | 12 | 12 | 17 | 51 | 68 | -17 | 48 |
| 19 | Woking | 40 | 10 | 16 | 14 | 41 | 53 | -12 | 46 |
| 20 | Dagenham & RedbridgeDag & Red | 41 | 10 | 13 | 18 | 52 | 59 | -7 | 43 |
| 21 | Boston UnitedBoston | 40 | 11 | 10 | 19 | 45 | 59 | -14 | 43 |
| 22 | Maidenhead UnitedMaidenhead | 41 | 11 | 8 | 22 | 47 | 72 | -25 | 41 |
| 23 | Fylde | 41 | 11 | 6 | 24 | 47 | 76 | -29 | 39 |
| 24 | Ebbsfleet | 41 | 2 | 13 | 26 | 34 | 88 | -54 | 19 |
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