

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sporting Lisbon win with a probability of 62.66%. A draw had a probability of 21.5% and a win for Casa Pia had a probability of 15.85%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sporting Lisbon win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.11%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (11.62%) and 1-2 (9.81%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.21%), while for a Casa Pia win it was 1-0 (5.33%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 9.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 1-2 win for Sporting Lisbon in this match and our data analysis correctly predicted the win for Sporting Lisbon.
| Result | ||
| Casa Pia | Draw | Sporting Lisbon |
| 15.85% ( | 21.49% ( | 62.66% ( |
| Both teams to score 48.62% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 52.15% ( | 47.85% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 29.97% ( | 70.03% ( |
| Casa Pia Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 56.98% ( | 43.02% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 20.69% ( | 79.31% ( |
| Sporting Lisbon Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 85.32% ( | 14.67% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 57.16% ( | 42.84% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| Casa Pia | Draw | Sporting Lisbon |
| 1-0 @ 5.33% ( 2-1 @ 4.31% ( 2-0 @ 2.25% ( 3-1 @ 1.21% ( 3-2 @ 1.16% ( Other @ 1.59% Total : 15.85% | 1-1 @ 10.21% 0-0 @ 6.31% ( 2-2 @ 4.14% ( Other @ 0.82% Total : 21.48% | 0-1 @ 12.11% ( 0-2 @ 11.62% ( 1-2 @ 9.81% ( 0-3 @ 7.44% ( 1-3 @ 6.27% ( 0-4 @ 3.57% ( 1-4 @ 3.01% ( 2-3 @ 2.65% ( 0-5 @ 1.37% ( 2-4 @ 1.27% ( 1-5 @ 1.16% ( Other @ 2.39% Total : 62.65% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Benfica | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 18 | 7 | 11 | 21 |
| 2 | Sporting Lisbon | 7 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 15 | 6 | 9 | 19 |
| 3 | Porto | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 6 | 5 | 19 |
| 4 | Braga | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 20 | 14 | 6 | 16 |
| 5 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 12 | 10 | 2 | 16 |
| 6 | BoavistaBoavista | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 18 | 13 | 5 | 15 |
| 7 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 12 |
| 8 | MoreirenseMoreirense | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 11 | 10 | 1 | 11 |
| 9 | Gil Vicente | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 18 | 15 | 3 | 9 |
| 10 | Casa Pia | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 7 | 0 | 9 |
| 11 | Estrela Amadora | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 12 | -4 | 8 |
| 12 | PortimonensePortimonense | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 9 | 18 | -9 | 8 |
| 13 | SC FarenseFarense | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 11 | 11 | 0 | 7 |
| 14 | ChavesChaves | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 12 | 21 | -9 | 7 |
| 15 | AroucaArouca | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 11 | -3 | 6 |
| 16 | Vizela | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 10 | 14 | -4 | 6 |
| 17 | Rio AveRio Ave | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 6 | 14 | -8 | 5 |
| 18 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 14 | 19 | -5 | 4 |
| > Primeira Liga Full Table | |||||||||
