Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AZ Alkmaar win with a probability of 38.57%. A win for Ajax had a probability of 37.51% and a draw had a probability of 23.9%.
The most likely scoreline for an AZ Alkmaar win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.46%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.1%) and 0-2 (5.52%). The likeliest Ajax win was 2-1 (8.32%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.87%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with an 8.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-2 win for AZ Alkmaar in this match and our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted the win for AZ Alkmaar.
| Result | ||
| Ajax | Draw | AZ Alkmaar |
| 37.51% ( | 23.91% ( | 38.57% ( |
| Both teams to score 61.82% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 59.59% ( | 40.41% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 37.21% ( | 62.79% ( |
| Ajax Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 78.36% ( | 21.63% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 45.25% ( | 54.75% ( |
| AZ Alkmaar Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 78.89% ( | 21.11% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 46.05% ( | 53.94% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| Ajax | Draw | AZ Alkmaar |
| 2-1 @ 8.32% ( 1-0 @ 6.99% ( 2-0 @ 5.35% ( 3-1 @ 4.25% ( 3-2 @ 3.3% ( 3-0 @ 2.73% ( 4-1 @ 1.63% ( 4-2 @ 1.27% ( 4-0 @ 1.05% ( Other @ 2.63% Total : 37.51% | 1-1 @ 10.87% ( 2-2 @ 6.47% ( 0-0 @ 4.57% ( 3-3 @ 1.71% ( Other @ 0.28% Total : 23.91% | 1-2 @ 8.46% ( 0-1 @ 7.1% ( 0-2 @ 5.52% ( 1-3 @ 4.39% ( 2-3 @ 3.36% ( 0-3 @ 2.86% ( 1-4 @ 1.71% ( 2-4 @ 1.31% ( 0-4 @ 1.11% ( Other @ 2.76% Total : 38.57% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | PSV EindhovenPSV | 9 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 30 | 3 | 27 | 27 |
| 2 | AZ AlkmaarAZ | 9 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 25 | 4 | 21 | 25 |
| 3 | Feyenoord | 9 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 32 | 6 | 26 | 23 |
| 4 | FC Twente | 9 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 19 | 6 | 13 | 22 |
| 5 | Go Ahead Eagles | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 17 | 15 | 2 | 15 |
| 6 | Sparta RotterdamSparta | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 12 | 13 | -1 | 15 |
| 7 | SBV ExcelsiorExcelsior | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 16 | 15 | 1 | 13 |
| 8 | Heracles | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 14 | 22 | -8 | 12 |
| 9 | PEC Zwolle | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 12 | 17 | -5 | 11 |
| 10 | Heerenveen | 10 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 13 | 21 | -8 | 10 |
| 11 | Fortuna SittardSittard | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 8 | 17 | -9 | 10 |
| 12 | NECNijmegen | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 14 | 16 | -2 | 9 |
| 13 | RKC WaalwijkRKC Waalwijk | 9 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 7 | 17 | -10 | 9 |
| 14 | Almere CityAlmere City | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 8 | 19 | -11 | 9 |
| 15 | Vitesse | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 7 | 16 | -9 | 8 |
| 16 | FC UtrechtUtrecht | 10 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 8 | 20 | -12 | 7 |
| 17 | Ajax | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 11 | 16 | -5 | 5 |
| 18 | FC VolendamVolendam | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 8 | 18 | -10 | 4 |
| > Eredivisie Full Table | |||||||||
