

| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 4 | FC Twente | 33 | 17 | 65 |
| 5 | AZ Alkmaar | 33 | 22 | 61 |
| 6 | Vitesse | 33 | -9 | 50 |
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Ajax | 33 | 79 | 82 |
| 2 | PSV Eindhoven | 33 | 43 | 78 |
| 3 | Feyenoord | 33 | 43 | 71 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ajax win with a probability of 55.43%. A draw had a probability of 23.3% and a win for AZ Alkmaar had a probability of 21.29%.
The most likely scoreline for an Ajax win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.96%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.83%) and 0-2 (9.74%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.05%), while for an AZ Alkmaar win it was 1-0 (6.22%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 5% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| AZ Alkmaar | Draw | Ajax |
| 21.29% | 23.28% | 55.43% |
| Both teams to score 52.78% |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 52.72% | 47.27% |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 30.5% | 69.5% |
| AZ Alkmaar Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 63.52% | 36.48% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 26.73% | 73.26% |
| Ajax Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 83.1% | 16.9% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 53.05% | 46.94% |
| Score Analysis |
| AZ Alkmaar | Draw | Ajax |
| 1-0 @ 6.22% 2-1 @ 5.57% 2-0 @ 3.14% 3-1 @ 1.87% 3-2 @ 1.67% 3-0 @ 1.05% Other @ 1.77% Total : 21.29% | 1-1 @ 11.05% 0-0 @ 6.17% 2-2 @ 4.95% 3-3 @ 0.99% Other @ 0.12% Total : 23.28% | 0-1 @ 10.96% 1-2 @ 9.83% 0-2 @ 9.74% 1-3 @ 5.82% 0-3 @ 5.77% 2-3 @ 2.94% 1-4 @ 2.59% 0-4 @ 2.57% 2-4 @ 1.31% 1-5 @ 0.92% 0-5 @ 0.91% Other @ 2.08% Total : 55.43% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Feyenoord | 30 | 22 | 7 | 1 | 73 | 28 | 45 | 73 |
| 2 | PSV EindhovenPSV | 30 | 20 | 5 | 5 | 81 | 35 | 46 | 65 |
| 3 | Ajax | 30 | 18 | 8 | 4 | 79 | 32 | 47 | 62 |
| 4 | AZ AlkmaarAZ | 30 | 18 | 6 | 6 | 59 | 32 | 27 | 60 |
| 5 | Sparta RotterdamSparta | 30 | 15 | 8 | 7 | 50 | 33 | 17 | 53 |
| 6 | FC Twente | 30 | 14 | 10 | 6 | 51 | 26 | 25 | 52 |
| 7 | FC UtrechtUtrecht | 30 | 12 | 9 | 9 | 46 | 45 | 1 | 45 |
| 8 | RKC WaalwijkRKC Waalwijk | 31 | 11 | 8 | 12 | 50 | 53 | -3 | 41 |
| 9 | NECNijmegen | 30 | 8 | 14 | 8 | 39 | 34 | 5 | 38 |
| 10 | Heerenveen | 30 | 10 | 8 | 12 | 36 | 45 | -9 | 38 |
| 11 | Go Ahead Eagles | 30 | 9 | 9 | 12 | 42 | 50 | -8 | 36 |
| 12 | Fortuna SittardSittard | 30 | 9 | 5 | 16 | 35 | 56 | -21 | 32 |
| 13 | Vitesse | 30 | 7 | 10 | 13 | 36 | 48 | -12 | 31 |
| 14 | FC VolendamVolendam | 31 | 8 | 6 | 17 | 37 | 65 | -28 | 30 |
| 15 | EmmenEmmen | 30 | 6 | 10 | 14 | 29 | 51 | -22 | 28 |
| 16 | SBV ExcelsiorExcelsior | 30 | 8 | 4 | 18 | 27 | 66 | -39 | 28 |
| 17 | Groningen | 30 | 4 | 5 | 21 | 28 | 60 | -32 | 17 |
| 18 | Cambuur | 30 | 4 | 4 | 22 | 21 | 60 | -39 | 16 |
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