

| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 4 | FC Twente | 33 | 17 | 65 |
| 5 | AZ Alkmaar | 33 | 22 | 61 |
| 6 | Vitesse | 33 | -9 | 50 |
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 5 | AZ Alkmaar | 33 | 22 | 61 |
| 6 | Vitesse | 33 | -9 | 50 |
| 7 | FC Utrecht | 33 | 8 | 47 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AZ Alkmaar win with a probability of 58.26%. A draw had a probability of 22.2% and a win for Vitesse had a probability of 19.57%.
The most likely scoreline for an AZ Alkmaar win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.49%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.93%) and 2-1 (9.93%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.49%), while for a Vitesse win it was 0-1 (5.54%). The actual scoreline of 6-1 was predicted with a 0.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that AZ Alkmaar would win this match.
| Result | ||
| AZ Alkmaar | Draw | Vitesse |
| 58.26% ( | 22.17% ( | 19.57% ( |
| Both teams to score 53.68% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 55.23% ( | 44.77% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 32.87% ( | 67.13% ( |
| AZ Alkmaar Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 84.94% ( | 15.07% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 56.42% ( | 43.58% ( |
| Vitesse Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 63.2% ( | 36.8% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 26.41% ( | 73.59% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| AZ Alkmaar | Draw | Vitesse |
| 1-0 @ 10.49% ( 2-0 @ 9.93% ( 2-1 @ 9.93% ( 3-0 @ 6.27% ( 3-1 @ 6.26% ( 3-2 @ 3.13% ( 4-0 @ 2.97% ( 4-1 @ 2.96% ( 4-2 @ 1.48% ( 5-0 @ 1.12% ( 5-1 @ 1.12% ( Other @ 2.59% Total : 58.25% | 1-1 @ 10.49% ( 0-0 @ 5.55% ( 2-2 @ 4.96% ( 3-3 @ 1.04% ( Other @ 0.13% Total : 22.17% | 0-1 @ 5.54% ( 1-2 @ 5.24% ( 0-2 @ 2.77% ( 1-3 @ 1.75% ( 2-3 @ 1.65% ( 0-3 @ 0.92% ( Other @ 1.69% Total : 19.57% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | AZ AlkmaarAZ | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 2 | 8 | 9 |
| 2 | PSV EindhovenPSV | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 1 | 8 | 9 |
| 3 | FC Twente | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 2 | 7 | 9 |
| 4 | Feyenoord | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 13 | 4 | 9 | 8 |
| 5 | Sparta RotterdamSparta | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 8 |
| 6 | Heerenveen | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 7 | 1 | 6 |
| 7 | Fortuna SittardSittard | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 6 |
| 8 | Go Ahead Eagles | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 6 |
| 9 | Heracles | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 6 |
| 10 | PEC Zwolle | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 6 | -1 | 6 |
| 11 | Ajax | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 5 |
| 12 | SBV ExcelsiorExcelsior | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 10 | -1 | 5 |
| 13 | NECNijmegen | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 7 | 1 | 4 |
| 14 | Vitesse | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 6 | -3 | 3 |
| 15 | FC VolendamVolendam | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 8 | -6 | 0 |
| 16 | FC UtrechtUtrecht | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 10 | -9 | 0 |
| 17 | Almere CityAlmere City | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 14 | -10 | 0 |
| 18 | RKC WaalwijkRKC Waalwijk | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 13 | -11 | 0 |
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