| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 8 | NEC | 33 | -13 | 38 |
| 9 | Heerenveen | 33 | -15 | 38 |
| 10 | Go Ahead Eagles | 33 | -12 | 36 |
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 4 | FC Twente | 33 | 17 | 65 |
| 5 | AZ Alkmaar | 33 | 22 | 61 |
| 6 | Vitesse | 33 | -9 | 50 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AZ Alkmaar win with a probability of 45.32%. A win for Heerenveen had a probability of 30.44% and a draw had a probability of 24.2%.
The most likely scoreline for an AZ Alkmaar win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.24%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.7%) and 0-2 (7.11%). The likeliest Heerenveen win was 2-1 (7.34%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.29%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 2.6% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Heerenveen | Draw | AZ Alkmaar |
| 30.44% ( | 24.23% | 45.32% ( |
| Both teams to score 58.54% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 56.19% ( | 43.81% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 33.8% ( | 66.2% ( |
| Heerenveen Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 72.71% ( | 27.28% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 37.28% ( | 62.72% ( |
| AZ Alkmaar Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 80.51% ( | 19.49% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 48.64% ( | 51.36% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| Heerenveen | Draw | AZ Alkmaar |
| 2-1 @ 7.34% ( 1-0 @ 6.91% 2-0 @ 4.49% ( 3-1 @ 3.18% ( 3-2 @ 2.6% ( 3-0 @ 1.94% ( 4-1 @ 1.03% ( Other @ 2.97% Total : 30.45% | 1-1 @ 11.29% 2-2 @ 6% 0-0 @ 5.32% ( 3-3 @ 1.42% Other @ 0.21% Total : 24.23% | 1-2 @ 9.24% ( 0-1 @ 8.7% ( 0-2 @ 7.11% ( 1-3 @ 5.03% 0-3 @ 3.88% ( 2-3 @ 3.27% 1-4 @ 2.06% 0-4 @ 1.58% 2-4 @ 1.34% Other @ 3.12% Total : 45.32% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Feyenoord | 26 | 18 | 7 | 1 | 59 | 25 | 34 | 61 |
| 2 | PSV EindhovenPSV | 27 | 17 | 5 | 5 | 71 | 33 | 38 | 56 |
| 3 | Ajax | 26 | 16 | 7 | 3 | 72 | 28 | 44 | 55 |
| 4 | AZ AlkmaarAZ | 27 | 16 | 6 | 5 | 53 | 31 | 22 | 54 |
| 5 | FC Twente | 27 | 13 | 9 | 5 | 44 | 22 | 22 | 48 |
| 6 | Sparta RotterdamSparta | 26 | 13 | 7 | 6 | 41 | 27 | 14 | 46 |
| 7 | FC UtrechtUtrecht | 26 | 10 | 8 | 8 | 42 | 41 | 1 | 38 |
| 8 | Heerenveen | 27 | 9 | 8 | 10 | 32 | 37 | -5 | 35 |
| 9 | NECNijmegen | 27 | 7 | 13 | 7 | 37 | 30 | 7 | 34 |
| 10 | RKC WaalwijkRKC Waalwijk | 25 | 8 | 8 | 9 | 41 | 40 | 1 | 32 |
| 11 | Go Ahead Eagles | 25 | 7 | 8 | 10 | 36 | 44 | -8 | 29 |
| 12 | Fortuna SittardSittard | 26 | 8 | 5 | 13 | 32 | 46 | -14 | 29 |
| 13 | FC VolendamVolendam | 26 | 7 | 5 | 14 | 31 | 56 | -25 | 26 |
| 14 | Vitesse | 26 | 5 | 9 | 12 | 30 | 47 | -17 | 24 |
| 15 | EmmenEmmen | 27 | 5 | 9 | 13 | 25 | 46 | -21 | 24 |
| 16 | SBV ExcelsiorExcelsior | 27 | 7 | 3 | 17 | 25 | 61 | -36 | 24 |
| 17 | Groningen | 26 | 4 | 5 | 17 | 25 | 52 | -27 | 17 |
| 18 | Cambuur | 27 | 4 | 4 | 19 | 21 | 51 | -30 | 16 |
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