

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a PSV Eindhoven win with a probability of 52.59%. A win for NEC had a probability of 25.35% and a draw had a probability of 22.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a PSV Eindhoven win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.6%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.65%) and 0-2 (7.43%). The likeliest NEC win was 2-1 (6.38%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.88%). The actual scoreline of 2-4 was predicted with a 2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that PSV Eindhoven would win this match.
| Result | ||
| NEC | Draw | PSV Eindhoven |
| 25.35% | 22.05% ( | 52.59% ( |
| Both teams to score 62.13% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 62.73% ( | 37.27% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 40.52% ( | 59.48% ( |
| NEC Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 72.53% ( | 27.47% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 37.03% | 62.97% ( |
| PSV Eindhoven Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 85.67% ( | 14.33% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 57.83% ( | 42.17% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| NEC | Draw | PSV Eindhoven |
| 2-1 @ 6.38% 1-0 @ 5.09% 2-0 @ 3.29% 3-1 @ 2.75% 3-2 @ 2.67% 3-0 @ 1.42% Other @ 3.76% Total : 25.35% | 1-1 @ 9.88% ( 2-2 @ 6.2% 0-0 @ 3.94% ( 3-3 @ 1.73% Other @ 0.3% Total : 22.05% | 1-2 @ 9.6% 0-1 @ 7.65% 0-2 @ 7.43% ( 1-3 @ 6.22% ( 0-3 @ 4.81% 2-3 @ 4.02% 1-4 @ 3.02% 0-4 @ 2.34% 2-4 @ 1.95% 1-5 @ 1.17% 0-5 @ 0.91% Other @ 3.49% Total : 52.59% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| C | Feyenoord | 33 | 25 | 7 | 1 | 81 | 29 | 52 | 82 |
| 2 | PSV EindhovenPSV | 33 | 22 | 6 | 5 | 87 | 39 | 48 | 72 |
| 3 | Ajax | 33 | 20 | 9 | 4 | 85 | 35 | 50 | 69 |
| 4 | AZ AlkmaarAZ | 33 | 20 | 7 | 6 | 67 | 33 | 34 | 67 |
| 5 | FC Twente | 33 | 17 | 10 | 6 | 63 | 26 | 37 | 61 |
| 6 | Sparta RotterdamSparta | 33 | 16 | 8 | 9 | 55 | 37 | 18 | 56 |
| 7 | FC UtrechtUtrecht | 33 | 14 | 9 | 10 | 52 | 48 | 4 | 51 |
| 8 | Heerenveen | 33 | 11 | 10 | 12 | 42 | 50 | -8 | 43 |
| 9 | RKC WaalwijkRKC Waalwijk | 33 | 11 | 8 | 14 | 50 | 60 | -10 | 41 |
| 10 | Go Ahead Eagles | 33 | 10 | 10 | 13 | 46 | 54 | -8 | 40 |
| 11 | NECNijmegen | 33 | 8 | 14 | 11 | 41 | 44 | -3 | 38 |
| 12 | Vitesse | 33 | 9 | 10 | 14 | 44 | 50 | -6 | 37 |
| 13 | Fortuna SittardSittard | 33 | 10 | 5 | 18 | 38 | 61 | -23 | 35 |
| 14 | FC VolendamVolendam | 33 | 9 | 6 | 18 | 39 | 69 | -30 | 33 |
| 15 | SBV ExcelsiorExcelsior | 33 | 9 | 5 | 19 | 30 | 68 | -38 | 32 |
| 16 | EmmenEmmen | 33 | 6 | 10 | 17 | 31 | 62 | -31 | 28 |
| R | Groningen | 33 | 4 | 6 | 23 | 31 | 70 | -39 | 18 |
| R | Cambuur | 33 | 4 | 4 | 25 | 22 | 69 | -47 | 16 |
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