Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a SBV Excelsior win with a probability of 45.24%. A win for NEC had a probability of 30.23% and a draw had a probability of 24.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a SBV Excelsior win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.23%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.08%) and 2-0 (7.28%). The likeliest NEC win was 1-2 (7.3%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.5%). The actual scoreline of 0-3 was predicted with a 1.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that NEC would win this match.
| Result | ||
| SBV Excelsior | Draw | NEC | 
| 45.24% ( | 24.53% ( | 30.23% ( | 
| Both teams to score 57.4% ( | 
| Goals | 
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 
| 54.75% ( | 45.25% ( | 
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 | 
| 32.4% ( | 67.59% ( | 
| SBV Excelsior Goals | 
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 | 
| 79.89% ( | 20.11% ( | 
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 47.64% ( | 52.36% ( | 
| NEC Goals | 
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 | 
| 71.85% ( | 28.15% ( | 
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 36.17% ( | 63.83% ( | 
| Score Analysis | 
| SBV Excelsior | Draw | NEC | 
| 2-1 @ 9.23% ( 1-0 @ 9.08% ( 2-0 @ 7.28% ( 3-1 @ 4.94% ( 3-0 @ 3.89% ( 3-2 @ 3.13% 4-1 @ 1.98% ( 4-0 @ 1.56% ( 4-2 @ 1.25% ( Other @ 2.9% Total : 45.24%  | 1-1 @ 11.5% 2-2 @ 5.85% ( 0-0 @ 5.66% ( 3-3 @ 1.32% ( Other @ 0.18% Total : 24.52%  | 1-2 @ 7.3% ( 0-1 @ 7.18% ( 0-2 @ 4.55% ( 1-3 @ 3.08% ( 2-3 @ 2.47% ( 0-3 @ 1.92% ( 1-4 @ 0.98% ( Other @ 2.76% Total : 30.23%  | 
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | AZ AlkmaarAZ | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 
| 2 | FC Twente | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 
| 3 | Ajax | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 
| 4 | Heerenveen | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 
| 5 | PSV EindhovenPSV | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 
| 6 | SBV ExcelsiorExcelsior | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 
| 7 | Sparta RotterdamSparta | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 
| 8 | Vitesse | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 
| 9 | Fortuna SittardSittard | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 
| 10 | Feyenoord | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 
| 11 | NECNijmegen | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 0 | 
| 12 | FC VolendamVolendam | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 
| 13 | PEC Zwolle | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 
| 14 | RKC WaalwijkRKC Waalwijk | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 0 | 
| 15 | FC UtrechtUtrecht | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 | 
| 16 | Heracles | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -3 | 0 | 
| 17 | Almere CityAlmere City | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -3 | 0 | 
| 18 | Go Ahead Eagles | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -4 | 0 | 
| > Eredivisie Full Table | |||||||||
