

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a NEC win with a probability of 50.89%. A win for SBV Excelsior had a probability of 25.27% and a draw had a probability of 23.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a NEC win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.86%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.65%) and 2-0 (8.47%). The likeliest SBV Excelsior win was 0-1 (6.54%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.23%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with an 11.2% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| NEC | Draw | SBV Excelsior |
| 50.89% ( | 23.84% ( | 25.27% ( |
| Both teams to score 55.82% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 54.43% ( | 45.57% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 32.1% ( | 67.9% ( |
| NEC Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 82.06% ( | 17.94% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 51.23% ( | 48.77% ( |
| SBV Excelsior Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 68.02% ( | 31.98% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 31.56% ( | 68.43% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| NEC | Draw | SBV Excelsior |
| 1-0 @ 9.86% ( 2-1 @ 9.65% ( 2-0 @ 8.47% ( 3-1 @ 5.53% ( 3-0 @ 4.85% ( 3-2 @ 3.15% ( 4-1 @ 2.38% ( 4-0 @ 2.08% ( 4-2 @ 1.35% ( Other @ 3.58% Total : 50.9% | 1-1 @ 11.23% ( 0-0 @ 5.74% ( 2-2 @ 5.5% ( 3-3 @ 1.2% ( Other @ 0.16% Total : 23.83% | 0-1 @ 6.54% ( 1-2 @ 6.41% ( 0-2 @ 3.73% ( 1-3 @ 2.44% ( 2-3 @ 2.09% ( 0-3 @ 1.42% ( Other @ 2.65% Total : 25.27% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | AZ AlkmaarAZ | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 3 |
| 2 | FC Twente | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 3 |
| 3 | Ajax | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 3 |
| 4 | Heerenveen | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 3 |
| 5 | PSV EindhovenPSV | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 6 | SBV ExcelsiorExcelsior | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 3 |
| 7 | Sparta RotterdamSparta | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| 8 | Vitesse | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| 9 | Fortuna SittardSittard | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 10 | Feyenoord | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 11 | NECNijmegen | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 0 |
| 12 | FC VolendamVolendam | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 |
| 13 | PEC Zwolle | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 |
| 14 | RKC WaalwijkRKC Waalwijk | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 0 |
| 15 | FC UtrechtUtrecht | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 |
| 16 | Heracles | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -3 | 0 |
| 17 | Almere CityAlmere City | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -3 | 0 |
| 18 | Go Ahead Eagles | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -4 | 0 |
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