| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 5 | Heerenveen | 4 | 5 | 8 |
| 6 | FC Twente | 3 | 3 | 6 |
| 7 | SBV Excelsior | 3 | -1 | 6 |
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 6 | FC Twente | 3 | 3 | 6 |
| 7 | SBV Excelsior | 3 | -1 | 6 |
| 8 | Groningen | 4 | -4 | 5 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a FC Twente win with a probability of 61.39%. A draw had a probability of 20.8% and a win for SBV Excelsior had a probability of 17.81%.
The most likely scoreline for a FC Twente win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.95%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.94%) and 1-0 (9.74%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.76%), while for a SBV Excelsior win it was 1-2 (4.89%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 3.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that FC Twente would win this match.
| Result | ||
| FC Twente | Draw | SBV Excelsior |
| 61.39% ( | 20.8% ( | 17.81% ( |
| Both teams to score 55.04% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 58.61% ( | 41.39% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 36.22% ( | 63.78% ( |
| FC Twente Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 87% ( | 13% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 60.48% ( | 39.52% ( |
| SBV Excelsior Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 63.26% ( | 36.74% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 26.48% ( | 73.53% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| FC Twente | Draw | SBV Excelsior |
| 2-1 @ 9.95% 2-0 @ 9.94% ( 1-0 @ 9.74% ( 3-1 @ 6.77% ( 3-0 @ 6.76% ( 4-1 @ 3.45% ( 4-0 @ 3.45% ( 3-2 @ 3.39% ( 4-2 @ 1.73% ( 5-1 @ 1.41% ( 5-0 @ 1.41% ( Other @ 3.38% Total : 61.39% | 1-1 @ 9.76% ( 2-2 @ 4.98% ( 0-0 @ 4.77% ( 3-3 @ 1.13% ( Other @ 0.16% Total : 20.8% | 1-2 @ 4.89% ( 0-1 @ 4.78% ( 0-2 @ 2.39% ( 2-3 @ 1.66% ( 1-3 @ 1.63% ( Other @ 2.46% Total : 17.81% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Feyenoord | 26 | 18 | 7 | 1 | 59 | 25 | 34 | 61 |
| 2 | PSV EindhovenPSV | 27 | 17 | 5 | 5 | 71 | 33 | 38 | 56 |
| 3 | Ajax | 26 | 16 | 7 | 3 | 72 | 28 | 44 | 55 |
| 4 | AZ AlkmaarAZ | 27 | 16 | 6 | 5 | 53 | 31 | 22 | 54 |
| 5 | FC Twente | 27 | 13 | 9 | 5 | 44 | 22 | 22 | 48 |
| 6 | Sparta RotterdamSparta | 26 | 13 | 7 | 6 | 41 | 27 | 14 | 46 |
| 7 | FC UtrechtUtrecht | 26 | 10 | 8 | 8 | 42 | 41 | 1 | 38 |
| 8 | Heerenveen | 27 | 9 | 8 | 10 | 32 | 37 | -5 | 35 |
| 9 | NECNijmegen | 27 | 7 | 13 | 7 | 37 | 30 | 7 | 34 |
| 10 | RKC WaalwijkRKC Waalwijk | 25 | 8 | 8 | 9 | 41 | 40 | 1 | 32 |
| 11 | Go Ahead Eagles | 25 | 7 | 8 | 10 | 36 | 44 | -8 | 29 |
| 12 | Fortuna SittardSittard | 26 | 8 | 5 | 13 | 32 | 46 | -14 | 29 |
| 13 | FC VolendamVolendam | 26 | 7 | 5 | 14 | 31 | 56 | -25 | 26 |
| 14 | Vitesse | 26 | 5 | 9 | 12 | 30 | 47 | -17 | 24 |
| 15 | EmmenEmmen | 27 | 5 | 9 | 13 | 25 | 46 | -21 | 24 |
| 16 | SBV ExcelsiorExcelsior | 27 | 7 | 3 | 17 | 25 | 61 | -36 | 24 |
| 17 | Groningen | 26 | 4 | 5 | 17 | 25 | 52 | -27 | 17 |
| 18 | Cambuur | 27 | 4 | 4 | 19 | 21 | 51 | -30 | 16 |
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