

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AZ Alkmaar win with a probability of 59.73%. A draw had a probability of 21.4% and a win for Heerenveen had a probability of 18.85%.
The most likely scoreline for an AZ Alkmaar win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.96%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.92%) and 2-0 (9.81%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.06%), while for a Heerenveen win it was 1-2 (5.11%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 10.1% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| AZ Alkmaar | Draw | Heerenveen |
| 59.73% ( | 21.42% ( | 18.85% ( |
| Both teams to score 54.93% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 57.51% ( | 42.49% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 35.1% ( | 64.9% ( |
| AZ Alkmaar Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 86.16% ( | 13.84% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 58.78% ( | 41.22% ( |
| Heerenveen Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 63.76% ( | 36.24% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 26.97% ( | 73.03% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| AZ Alkmaar | Draw | Heerenveen |
| 2-1 @ 9.96% ( 1-0 @ 9.92% ( 2-0 @ 9.81% ( 3-1 @ 6.56% ( 3-0 @ 6.47% ( 3-2 @ 3.33% ( 4-1 @ 3.24% ( 4-0 @ 3.2% ( 4-2 @ 1.65% ( 5-1 @ 1.28% ( 5-0 @ 1.26% ( Other @ 3.06% Total : 59.73% | 1-1 @ 10.06% 2-2 @ 5.05% ( 0-0 @ 5.02% ( 3-3 @ 1.13% ( Other @ 0.15% Total : 21.41% | 1-2 @ 5.11% ( 0-1 @ 5.09% ( 0-2 @ 2.58% ( 1-3 @ 1.73% ( 2-3 @ 1.71% ( Other @ 2.63% Total : 18.85% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| C | Feyenoord | 33 | 25 | 7 | 1 | 81 | 29 | 52 | 82 |
| 2 | PSV EindhovenPSV | 33 | 22 | 6 | 5 | 87 | 39 | 48 | 72 |
| 3 | Ajax | 33 | 20 | 9 | 4 | 85 | 35 | 50 | 69 |
| 4 | AZ AlkmaarAZ | 33 | 20 | 7 | 6 | 67 | 33 | 34 | 67 |
| 5 | FC Twente | 33 | 17 | 10 | 6 | 63 | 26 | 37 | 61 |
| 6 | Sparta RotterdamSparta | 33 | 16 | 8 | 9 | 55 | 37 | 18 | 56 |
| 7 | FC UtrechtUtrecht | 33 | 14 | 9 | 10 | 52 | 48 | 4 | 51 |
| 8 | Heerenveen | 33 | 11 | 10 | 12 | 42 | 50 | -8 | 43 |
| 9 | RKC WaalwijkRKC Waalwijk | 33 | 11 | 8 | 14 | 50 | 60 | -10 | 41 |
| 10 | Go Ahead Eagles | 33 | 10 | 10 | 13 | 46 | 54 | -8 | 40 |
| 11 | NECNijmegen | 33 | 8 | 14 | 11 | 41 | 44 | -3 | 38 |
| 12 | Vitesse | 33 | 9 | 10 | 14 | 44 | 50 | -6 | 37 |
| 13 | Fortuna SittardSittard | 33 | 10 | 5 | 18 | 38 | 61 | -23 | 35 |
| 14 | FC VolendamVolendam | 33 | 9 | 6 | 18 | 39 | 69 | -30 | 33 |
| 15 | SBV ExcelsiorExcelsior | 33 | 9 | 5 | 19 | 30 | 68 | -38 | 32 |
| 16 | EmmenEmmen | 33 | 6 | 10 | 17 | 31 | 62 | -31 | 28 |
| R | Groningen | 33 | 4 | 6 | 23 | 31 | 70 | -39 | 18 |
| R | Cambuur | 33 | 4 | 4 | 25 | 22 | 69 | -47 | 16 |
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