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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Swindon Town win with a probability of 45.31%. A win for Hartlepool United had a probability of 29.35% and a draw had a probability of 25.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Swindon Town win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.21%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.18%) and 0-2 (7.8%). The likeliest Hartlepool United win was 1-0 (7.89%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.03%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 7.1% likelihood.
Result | ||
Hartlepool United | Draw | Swindon Town |
29.35% ( -0.45) | 25.34% ( -0.02) | 45.31% ( 0.47) |
Both teams to score 54.16% ( -0.21) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
50.73% ( -0.15) | 49.27% ( 0.15) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
28.67% ( -0.14) | 71.32% ( 0.14) |
Hartlepool United Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
69.2% ( -0.41) | 30.79% ( 0.4) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
32.93% ( -0.48) | 67.07% ( 0.48) |
Swindon Town Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
78.26% ( 0.15) | 21.74% ( -0.15) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
45.09% ( 0.23) | 54.91% ( -0.23) |
Score Analysis |
Hartlepool United | Draw | Swindon Town |
1-0 @ 7.89% ( -0.04) 2-1 @ 7.09% ( -0.08) 2-0 @ 4.64% ( -0.08) 3-1 @ 2.78% ( -0.06) 3-2 @ 2.12% ( -0.04) 3-0 @ 1.82% ( -0.05) Other @ 3.01% Total : 29.35% | 1-1 @ 12.03% 0-0 @ 6.69% ( 0.04) 2-2 @ 5.41% ( -0.04) 3-3 @ 1.08% ( -0.01) Other @ 0.13% Total : 25.34% | 0-1 @ 10.21% ( 0.11) 1-2 @ 9.18% ( 0.04) 0-2 @ 7.8% ( 0.12) 1-3 @ 4.67% ( 0.04) 0-3 @ 3.97% ( 0.08) 2-3 @ 2.75% ( -0.01) 1-4 @ 1.78% ( 0.02) 0-4 @ 1.51% ( 0.04) 2-4 @ 1.05% ( 0) Other @ 2.38% Total : 45.3% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
C | Leyton Orient | 45 | 26 | 12 | 7 | 60 | 33 | 27 | 90 |
P | Stevenage | 45 | 23 | 13 | 9 | 60 | 39 | 21 | 82 |
3 | Northampton TownNorthampton | 45 | 22 | 14 | 9 | 61 | 42 | 19 | 80 |
4 | Stockport CountyStockport | 45 | 22 | 12 | 11 | 64 | 36 | 28 | 78 |
5 | Carlisle UnitedCarlisle | 45 | 20 | 15 | 10 | 65 | 42 | 23 | 75 |
6 | Salford City | 45 | 22 | 9 | 14 | 72 | 53 | 19 | 75 |
7 | Bradford CityBradford | 44 | 20 | 15 | 9 | 58 | 39 | 19 | 75 |
8 | Mansfield TownMansfield | 45 | 20 | 12 | 13 | 70 | 55 | 15 | 72 |
9 | BarrowBarrow | 45 | 18 | 8 | 19 | 47 | 52 | -5 | 62 |
10 | Swindon TownSwindon | 45 | 15 | 13 | 17 | 59 | 54 | 5 | 58 |
11 | Tranmere RoversTranmere | 45 | 15 | 13 | 17 | 45 | 47 | -2 | 58 |
12 | Grimsby Town | 45 | 15 | 13 | 17 | 48 | 56 | -8 | 58 |
13 | Sutton UnitedSutton | 45 | 15 | 12 | 18 | 45 | 57 | -12 | 57 |
14 | Newport CountyNewport | 45 | 14 | 14 | 17 | 51 | 54 | -3 | 56 |
15 | Doncaster RoversDoncaster | 45 | 16 | 7 | 22 | 45 | 63 | -18 | 55 |
16 | Crewe AlexandraCrewe | 44 | 13 | 15 | 16 | 43 | 56 | -13 | 54 |
17 | Walsall | 45 | 11 | 19 | 15 | 44 | 48 | -4 | 52 |
18 | Gillingham | 45 | 13 | 13 | 19 | 35 | 49 | -14 | 52 |
19 | Harrogate TownHarrogate | 45 | 12 | 15 | 18 | 58 | 67 | -9 | 51 |
20 | Colchester UnitedColchester | 45 | 12 | 13 | 20 | 44 | 49 | -5 | 49 |
21 | AFC Wimbledon | 45 | 11 | 15 | 19 | 48 | 59 | -11 | 48 |
22 | Crawley TownCrawley | 45 | 11 | 13 | 21 | 47 | 69 | -22 | 46 |
R | Hartlepool UnitedHartlepool | 45 | 9 | 15 | 21 | 51 | 77 | -26 | 42 |
R | Rochdale | 45 | 9 | 10 | 26 | 45 | 69 | -24 | 37 |
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