Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Swindon Town win with a probability of 59.32%. A draw had a probability of 21.5% and a win for Harrogate Town had a probability of 19.16%.
The most likely scoreline for a Swindon Town win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.95%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.86%) and 2-0 (9.71%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.1%), while for a Harrogate Town win it was 1-2 (5.18%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 6.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Swindon Town would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Swindon Town | Draw | Harrogate Town | 
| 59.32% ( | 21.52% ( | 19.16% ( | 
| Both teams to score 55.17% ( | 
| Goals | 
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 
| 57.55% ( | 42.45% ( | 
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 | 
| 35.14% ( | 64.85% ( | 
| Swindon Town Goals | 
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 | 
| 86.04% ( | 13.95% ( | 
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 58.56% ( | 41.43% ( | 
| Harrogate Town Goals | 
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 | 
| 64.11% ( | 35.88% ( | 
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 27.34% ( | 72.66% ( | 
| Score Analysis | 
| Swindon Town | Draw | Harrogate Town | 
| 2-1 @ 9.95% 1-0 @ 9.86% ( 2-0 @ 9.71% ( 3-1 @ 6.53% 3-0 @ 6.37% ( 3-2 @ 3.35% ( 4-1 @ 3.22% 4-0 @ 3.14% ( 4-2 @ 1.65% 5-1 @ 1.27% 5-0 @ 1.24% Other @ 3.04% Total : 59.32%  | 1-1 @ 10.1% 2-2 @ 5.1% ( 0-0 @ 5.01% ( 3-3 @ 1.14% ( Other @ 0.16% Total : 21.51%  | 1-2 @ 5.18% ( 0-1 @ 5.13% 0-2 @ 2.63% ( 1-3 @ 1.77% 2-3 @ 1.74% Other @ 2.71% Total : 19.16%  | 
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Leyton Orient | 38 | 22 | 11 | 5 | 50 | 25 | 25 | 77 | 
| 2 | Northampton TownNorthampton | 39 | 19 | 13 | 7 | 53 | 34 | 19 | 70 | 
| 3 | Stevenage | 38 | 19 | 11 | 8 | 52 | 35 | 17 | 68 | 
| 4 | Carlisle UnitedCarlisle | 39 | 18 | 12 | 9 | 58 | 37 | 21 | 66 | 
| 5 | Stockport CountyStockport | 39 | 18 | 10 | 11 | 52 | 33 | 19 | 64 | 
| 6 | Bradford CityBradford | 38 | 17 | 13 | 8 | 48 | 34 | 14 | 64 | 
| 7 | Salford City | 39 | 18 | 9 | 12 | 61 | 44 | 17 | 63 | 
| 8 | Mansfield TownMansfield | 38 | 17 | 10 | 11 | 59 | 46 | 13 | 61 | 
| 9 | BarrowBarrow | 39 | 17 | 7 | 15 | 42 | 44 | -2 | 58 | 
| 10 | Sutton UnitedSutton | 39 | 15 | 12 | 12 | 41 | 41 | 0 | 57 | 
| 11 | Swindon TownSwindon | 38 | 13 | 12 | 13 | 50 | 45 | 5 | 51 | 
| 12 | Doncaster RoversDoncaster | 39 | 15 | 6 | 18 | 40 | 54 | -14 | 51 | 
| 13 | Walsall | 39 | 11 | 17 | 11 | 40 | 36 | 4 | 50 | 
| 14 | Tranmere RoversTranmere | 39 | 13 | 11 | 15 | 38 | 40 | -2 | 50 | 
| 15 | Grimsby Town | 38 | 12 | 12 | 14 | 41 | 46 | -5 | 48 | 
| 16 | AFC Wimbledon | 40 | 11 | 13 | 16 | 41 | 46 | -5 | 46 | 
| 17 | Crewe AlexandraCrewe | 38 | 10 | 15 | 13 | 36 | 47 | -11 | 45 | 
| 18 | Newport CountyNewport | 38 | 10 | 14 | 14 | 38 | 43 | -5 | 44 | 
| 19 | Gillingham | 39 | 11 | 11 | 17 | 27 | 42 | -15 | 44 | 
| 20 | Harrogate TownHarrogate | 38 | 9 | 12 | 17 | 43 | 55 | -12 | 39 | 
| 21 | Colchester UnitedColchester | 39 | 9 | 11 | 19 | 34 | 46 | -12 | 38 | 
| 22 | Crawley TownCrawley | 39 | 9 | 10 | 20 | 43 | 64 | -21 | 37 | 
| 23 | Hartlepool UnitedHartlepool | 39 | 7 | 14 | 18 | 43 | 68 | -25 | 35 | 
| 24 | Rochdale | 39 | 7 | 8 | 24 | 34 | 59 | -25 | 29 | 
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