Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sutton United win with a probability of 36.19%. A win for Swindon Town had a probability of 35.74% and a draw had a probability of 28.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sutton United win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.3%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.75%) and 2-0 (6.65%). The likeliest Swindon Town win was 0-1 (11.21%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.18%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 7.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Sutton United would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Sutton United | Draw | Swindon Town | 
| 36.19% (  -0.15) | 28.07% (  -0.02) | 35.74% (  0.17) | 
| Both teams to score 47.58% (  0.05) | 
| Goals | 
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 
| 41.48% (  0.06) | 58.52% (  -0.06) | 
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 | 
| 20.91% (  0.05) | 79.1% (  -0.05) | 
| Sutton United Goals | 
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 | 
| 69.13% (  -0.07) | 30.88% (  0.07) | 
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 32.84% (  -0.08) | 67.16% (  0.08) | 
| Swindon Town Goals | 
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 | 
| 68.84% (  0.14) | 31.17% (  -0.14) | 
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 32.5% (  0.16) | 67.5% (  -0.16) | 
| Score Analysis | 
| Sutton United | Draw | Swindon Town | 
| 1-0 @ 11.3% (  -0.05) 2-1 @ 7.75% (  -0.02) 2-0 @ 6.65% (  -0.04) 3-1 @ 3.04% (  -0.01) 3-0 @ 2.6% (  -0.02) 3-2 @ 1.77% Other @ 3.09% Total : 36.19% | 1-1 @ 13.18% 0-0 @ 9.62% (  -0.02) 2-2 @ 4.52% (  0.01) Other @ 0.75% Total : 28.07% | 0-1 @ 11.21% (  0.01) 1-2 @ 7.69% (  0.03) 0-2 @ 6.54% (  0.04) 1-3 @ 2.99% (  0.02) 0-3 @ 2.54% (  0.02) 2-3 @ 1.76% (  0.01) Other @ 3.01% Total : 35.73% | 
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Leyton Orient | 36 | 21 | 10 | 5 | 48 | 24 | 24 | 73 | 
| 2 | Stevenage | 36 | 19 | 10 | 7 | 50 | 31 | 19 | 67 | 
| 3 | Northampton TownNorthampton | 37 | 18 | 12 | 7 | 50 | 33 | 17 | 66 | 
| 4 | Carlisle UnitedCarlisle | 36 | 18 | 11 | 7 | 58 | 35 | 23 | 65 | 
| 5 | Stockport CountyStockport | 37 | 17 | 9 | 11 | 50 | 32 | 18 | 60 | 
| 6 | Bradford CityBradford | 36 | 16 | 12 | 8 | 45 | 32 | 13 | 60 | 
| 7 | Salford City | 37 | 17 | 8 | 12 | 57 | 42 | 15 | 59 | 
| 8 | Mansfield TownMansfield | 35 | 16 | 8 | 11 | 55 | 45 | 10 | 56 | 
| 9 | Sutton UnitedSutton | 37 | 15 | 10 | 12 | 40 | 40 | 0 | 55 | 
| 10 | BarrowBarrow | 37 | 15 | 7 | 15 | 38 | 42 | -4 | 52 | 
| 11 | Swindon TownSwindon | 36 | 13 | 12 | 11 | 49 | 42 | 7 | 51 | 
| 12 | Doncaster RoversDoncaster | 36 | 15 | 5 | 16 | 39 | 49 | -10 | 50 | 
| 13 | Walsall | 36 | 11 | 15 | 10 | 38 | 32 | 6 | 48 | 
| 14 | Tranmere RoversTranmere | 37 | 13 | 9 | 15 | 36 | 38 | -2 | 48 | 
| 15 | Grimsby Town | 34 | 12 | 9 | 13 | 37 | 41 | -4 | 45 | 
| 16 | Newport CountyNewport | 37 | 10 | 13 | 14 | 38 | 43 | -5 | 43 | 
| 17 | AFC Wimbledon | 37 | 10 | 13 | 14 | 38 | 43 | -5 | 43 | 
| 18 | Crewe AlexandraCrewe | 36 | 9 | 15 | 12 | 33 | 45 | -12 | 42 | 
| 19 | Harrogate TownHarrogate | 37 | 9 | 11 | 17 | 42 | 54 | -12 | 38 | 
| 20 | Gillingham | 36 | 9 | 11 | 16 | 23 | 39 | -16 | 38 | 
| 21 | Colchester UnitedColchester | 37 | 9 | 9 | 19 | 33 | 45 | -12 | 36 | 
| 22 | Crawley TownCrawley | 35 | 8 | 8 | 19 | 38 | 58 | -20 | 32 | 
| 23 | Hartlepool UnitedHartlepool | 37 | 6 | 13 | 18 | 40 | 66 | -26 | 31 | 
| 24 | Rochdale | 37 | 6 | 8 | 23 | 33 | 57 | -24 | 26 | 
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