Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Northampton Town win with a probability of 39.55%. A win for Swindon Town had a probability of 33.22% and a draw had a probability of 27.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Northampton Town win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.11%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.34%) and 2-0 (7.18%). The likeliest Swindon Town win was 0-1 (9.98%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.9%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 7.5% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Northampton Town | Draw | Swindon Town | 
| 39.55% (  -0.39) | 27.23% (  0.1) | 33.22% (  0.29) | 
| Both teams to score 49.83% (  -0.24) | 
| Goals | 
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 
| 44.43% (  -0.33) | 55.57% (  0.33) | 
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 | 
| 23.26% (  -0.27) | 76.74% (  0.27) | 
| Northampton Town Goals | 
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 | 
| 72.55% (  -0.38) | 27.45% (  0.37) | 
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 37.06% (  -0.49) | 62.94% (  0.48) | 
| Swindon Town Goals | 
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 | 
| 68.68% (  0.03) | 31.32% (  -0.03) | 
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 32.32% (  0.03) | 67.68% (  -0.03) | 
| Score Analysis | 
| Northampton Town | Draw | Swindon Town | 
| 1-0 @ 11.11% (  0.03) 2-1 @ 8.34% (  -0.06) 2-0 @ 7.18% (  -0.06) 3-1 @ 3.59% (  -0.07) 3-0 @ 3.1% (  -0.06) 3-2 @ 2.09% (  -0.04) 4-1 @ 1.16% (  -0.03) 4-0 @ 1% (  -0.03) Other @ 1.97% Total : 39.54% | 1-1 @ 12.9% (  0.04) 0-0 @ 8.6% (  0.11) 2-2 @ 4.84% (  -0.03) Other @ 0.89% Total : 27.23% | 0-1 @ 9.98% (  0.14) 1-2 @ 7.49% (  0.03) 0-2 @ 5.79% (  0.08) 1-3 @ 2.9% (  0.01) 0-3 @ 2.24% (  0.03) 2-3 @ 1.87% (  -0.01) Other @ 2.94% Total : 33.22% | 
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Leyton Orient | 32 | 20 | 7 | 5 | 42 | 19 | 23 | 67 | 
| 2 | Stevenage | 29 | 16 | 9 | 4 | 43 | 23 | 20 | 57 | 
| 3 | Carlisle UnitedCarlisle | 31 | 14 | 10 | 7 | 48 | 32 | 16 | 52 | 
| 4 | Northampton TownNorthampton | 30 | 14 | 10 | 6 | 43 | 29 | 14 | 52 | 
| 5 | Mansfield TownMansfield | 30 | 14 | 7 | 9 | 47 | 37 | 10 | 49 | 
| 6 | Salford City | 31 | 14 | 7 | 10 | 41 | 31 | 10 | 49 | 
| 7 | Stockport CountyStockport | 30 | 14 | 6 | 10 | 44 | 29 | 15 | 48 | 
| 8 | Bradford CityBradford | 29 | 13 | 9 | 7 | 37 | 28 | 9 | 48 | 
| 9 | Doncaster RoversDoncaster | 30 | 14 | 4 | 12 | 36 | 40 | -4 | 46 | 
| 10 | Sutton UnitedSutton | 31 | 12 | 8 | 11 | 32 | 38 | -6 | 44 | 
| 11 | Swindon TownSwindon | 30 | 11 | 9 | 10 | 38 | 34 | 4 | 42 | 
| 12 | Tranmere RoversTranmere | 31 | 11 | 8 | 12 | 32 | 30 | 2 | 41 | 
| 13 | AFC Wimbledon | 30 | 10 | 11 | 9 | 30 | 29 | 1 | 41 | 
| 14 | BarrowBarrow | 31 | 12 | 5 | 14 | 34 | 40 | -6 | 41 | 
| 15 | Walsall | 28 | 10 | 10 | 8 | 31 | 24 | 7 | 40 | 
| 16 | Colchester UnitedColchester | 32 | 9 | 8 | 15 | 31 | 38 | -7 | 35 | 
| 17 | Crewe AlexandraCrewe | 29 | 8 | 11 | 10 | 25 | 36 | -11 | 35 | 
| 18 | Newport CountyNewport | 29 | 8 | 9 | 12 | 29 | 33 | -4 | 33 | 
| 19 | Grimsby Town | 27 | 9 | 6 | 12 | 30 | 35 | -5 | 33 | 
| 20 | Harrogate TownHarrogate | 29 | 7 | 7 | 15 | 35 | 45 | -10 | 28 | 
| 21 | Gillingham | 29 | 6 | 9 | 14 | 17 | 34 | -17 | 27 | 
| 22 | Crawley TownCrawley | 28 | 6 | 8 | 14 | 32 | 46 | -14 | 26 | 
| 23 | Hartlepool UnitedHartlepool | 31 | 6 | 8 | 17 | 31 | 56 | -25 | 26 | 
| 24 | Rochdale | 31 | 5 | 6 | 20 | 25 | 47 | -22 | 21 | 
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