Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Northampton Town win with a probability of 40.11%. A win for Newport County had a probability of 32.76% and a draw had a probability of 27.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Northampton Town win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.12%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.42%) and 2-0 (7.29%). The likeliest Newport County win was 0-1 (9.82%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.86%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.9% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Northampton Town | Draw | Newport County |
| 40.11% ( | 27.13% ( | 32.76% ( |
| Both teams to score 50.03% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 44.74% ( | 55.26% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 23.51% ( | 76.49% ( |
| Northampton Town Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 73.01% ( | 26.99% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 37.66% ( | 62.34% ( |
| Newport County Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 68.53% ( | 31.47% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 32.14% ( | 67.85% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| Northampton Town | Draw | Newport County |
| 1-0 @ 11.12% ( 2-1 @ 8.42% ( 2-0 @ 7.29% ( 3-1 @ 3.68% ( 3-0 @ 3.18% ( 3-2 @ 2.13% ( 4-1 @ 1.2% 4-0 @ 1.04% Other @ 2.05% Total : 40.11% | 1-1 @ 12.86% 0-0 @ 8.49% ( 2-2 @ 4.87% ( Other @ 0.9% Total : 27.12% | 0-1 @ 9.82% 1-2 @ 7.44% ( 0-2 @ 5.68% ( 1-3 @ 2.87% ( 0-3 @ 2.19% ( 2-3 @ 1.88% ( Other @ 2.9% Total : 32.76% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Leyton Orient | 39 | 23 | 11 | 5 | 52 | 25 | 27 | 80 |
| 2 | Northampton TownNorthampton | 40 | 19 | 13 | 8 | 53 | 37 | 16 | 70 |
| 3 | Carlisle UnitedCarlisle | 40 | 19 | 12 | 9 | 60 | 37 | 23 | 69 |
| 4 | Stevenage | 39 | 19 | 12 | 8 | 53 | 36 | 17 | 69 |
| 5 | Stockport CountyStockport | 40 | 19 | 10 | 11 | 53 | 33 | 20 | 67 |
| 6 | Bradford CityBradford | 39 | 17 | 14 | 8 | 48 | 34 | 14 | 65 |
| 7 | Mansfield TownMansfield | 39 | 18 | 10 | 11 | 63 | 48 | 15 | 64 |
| 8 | Salford City | 40 | 18 | 9 | 13 | 61 | 46 | 15 | 63 |
| 9 | BarrowBarrow | 40 | 17 | 7 | 16 | 42 | 47 | -5 | 58 |
| 10 | Sutton UnitedSutton | 40 | 15 | 12 | 13 | 41 | 42 | -1 | 57 |
| 11 | Swindon TownSwindon | 39 | 13 | 12 | 14 | 52 | 49 | 3 | 51 |
| 12 | Doncaster RoversDoncaster | 40 | 15 | 6 | 19 | 40 | 55 | -15 | 51 |
| 13 | Walsall | 40 | 11 | 17 | 12 | 42 | 40 | 2 | 50 |
| 14 | Tranmere RoversTranmere | 40 | 13 | 11 | 16 | 38 | 42 | -4 | 50 |
| 15 | Grimsby Town | 39 | 12 | 12 | 15 | 42 | 50 | -8 | 48 |
| 16 | Crewe AlexandraCrewe | 39 | 11 | 15 | 13 | 39 | 47 | -8 | 48 |
| 17 | Newport CountyNewport | 39 | 11 | 14 | 14 | 41 | 43 | -2 | 47 |
| 18 | AFC Wimbledon | 41 | 11 | 14 | 16 | 43 | 48 | -5 | 47 |
| 19 | Gillingham | 40 | 12 | 11 | 17 | 28 | 42 | -14 | 47 |
| 20 | Harrogate TownHarrogate | 39 | 9 | 13 | 17 | 45 | 57 | -12 | 40 |
| 21 | Colchester UnitedColchester | 40 | 9 | 12 | 19 | 35 | 47 | -12 | 39 |
| 22 | Crawley TownCrawley | 40 | 9 | 11 | 20 | 43 | 64 | -21 | 38 |
| 23 | Hartlepool UnitedHartlepool | 40 | 8 | 14 | 18 | 47 | 69 | -22 | 38 |
| 24 | Rochdale | 40 | 8 | 8 | 24 | 38 | 61 | -23 | 32 |
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