

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a PSV Eindhoven win with a probability of 89.66%. A draw had a probability of 7.1% and a win for SBV Excelsior had a probability of 3.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a PSV Eindhoven win was 3-0 with a probability of 10.98%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 4-0 (10%) and 2-0 (9.06%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (3.25%), while for a SBV Excelsior win it was 1-2 (1.06%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 10% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that PSV Eindhoven would win this match.
| Result | ||
| PSV Eindhoven | Draw | SBV Excelsior | 
| 89.66% ( | 7.14% ( | 3.2% ( | 
| Both teams to score 46.67% ( | 
| Goals | 
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 
| 80.16% ( | 19.83% ( | 
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 | 
| 62.14% ( | 37.85% ( | 
| PSV Eindhoven Goals | 
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 | 
| 97.37% ( | 2.62% ( | 
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 87.81% ( | 12.18% ( | 
| SBV Excelsior Goals | 
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 | 
| 47.93% ( | 52.06% ( | 
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 13.95% ( | 86.05% ( | 
| Score Analysis | 
| PSV Eindhoven | Draw | SBV Excelsior | 
| 3-0 @ 10.98% ( 4-0 @ 10% ( 2-0 @ 9.06% ( 5-0 @ 7.28% ( 3-1 @ 7.17% ( 4-1 @ 6.53% ( 2-1 @ 5.91% ( 1-0 @ 4.98% ( 5-1 @ 4.75% ( 6-0 @ 4.42% ( 6-1 @ 2.88% ( 3-2 @ 2.34% ( 7-0 @ 2.3% ( 4-2 @ 2.13% ( 5-2 @ 1.55% ( 7-1 @ 1.5% ( 8-0 @ 1.04% ( 6-2 @ 0.94% ( Other @ 3.91% Total : 89.65%  | 1-1 @ 3.25% ( 2-2 @ 1.93% ( 0-0 @ 1.37% ( Other @ 0.59% Total : 7.14%  | 1-2 @ 1.06% ( Other @ 2.14% Total : 3.2%  | 
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| C | Feyenoord | 34 | 25 | 7 | 2 | 81 | 30 | 51 | 82 | 
| 2 | PSV EindhovenPSV | 34 | 23 | 6 | 5 | 89 | 40 | 49 | 75 | 
| 3 | Ajax | 34 | 20 | 9 | 5 | 86 | 38 | 48 | 69 | 
| 4 | AZ AlkmaarAZ | 34 | 20 | 7 | 7 | 68 | 35 | 33 | 67 | 
| 5 | FC Twente | 34 | 18 | 10 | 6 | 66 | 27 | 39 | 64 | 
| 6 | Sparta RotterdamSparta | 34 | 17 | 8 | 9 | 60 | 37 | 23 | 59 | 
| 7 | FC UtrechtUtrecht | 34 | 15 | 9 | 10 | 55 | 50 | 5 | 54 | 
| 8 | Heerenveen | 34 | 12 | 10 | 12 | 44 | 50 | -6 | 46 | 
| 9 | RKC WaalwijkRKC Waalwijk | 34 | 11 | 8 | 15 | 50 | 64 | -14 | 41 | 
| 10 | Vitesse | 34 | 10 | 10 | 14 | 45 | 50 | -5 | 40 | 
| 11 | Go Ahead Eagles | 34 | 10 | 10 | 14 | 46 | 56 | -10 | 40 | 
| 12 | NECNijmegen | 34 | 8 | 15 | 11 | 42 | 45 | -3 | 39 | 
| 13 | Fortuna SittardSittard | 34 | 10 | 6 | 18 | 39 | 62 | -23 | 36 | 
| 14 | FC VolendamVolendam | 34 | 10 | 6 | 18 | 42 | 71 | -29 | 36 | 
| 15 | SBV ExcelsiorExcelsior | 34 | 9 | 5 | 20 | 32 | 71 | -39 | 32 | 
| 16 | EmmenEmmen | 34 | 6 | 10 | 18 | 33 | 65 | -32 | 28 | 
| R | Cambuur | 34 | 5 | 4 | 25 | 26 | 69 | -43 | 19 | 
| R | Groningen | 34 | 4 | 6 | 24 | 31 | 75 | -44 | 18 | 
| > Eredivisie Full Table | |||||||||
