Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Groningen win with a probability of 58.98%. A draw had a probability of 22.9% and a win for SBV Excelsior had a probability of 18.15%.
The most likely scoreline for a Groningen win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.28%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.05%) and 2-1 (9.78%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.86%), while for a SBV Excelsior win it was 0-1 (6.04%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 6.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Groningen would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Groningen | Draw | SBV Excelsior |
| 58.98% ( | 22.87% ( | 18.15% ( |
| Both teams to score 49.01% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 50.26% ( | 49.74% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 28.25% ( | 71.75% ( |
| Groningen Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 83.46% ( | 16.53% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 53.71% ( | 46.29% ( |
| SBV Excelsior Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 58.72% ( | 41.28% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 22.19% ( | 77.8% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| Groningen | Draw | SBV Excelsior |
| 1-0 @ 12.28% ( 2-0 @ 11.05% 2-1 @ 9.78% ( 3-0 @ 6.63% ( 3-1 @ 5.87% ( 4-0 @ 2.98% ( 4-1 @ 2.64% ( 3-2 @ 2.6% ( 4-2 @ 1.17% ( 5-0 @ 1.07% ( 5-1 @ 0.95% ( Other @ 1.95% Total : 58.97% | 1-1 @ 10.86% ( 0-0 @ 6.82% ( 2-2 @ 4.33% ( Other @ 0.85% Total : 22.86% | 0-1 @ 6.04% ( 1-2 @ 4.81% ( 0-2 @ 2.67% ( 1-3 @ 1.42% ( 2-3 @ 1.28% ( Other @ 1.94% Total : 18.15% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | PSV EindhovenPSV | 17 | 17 | 0 | 0 | 59 | 7 | 52 | 51 |
| 2 | Feyenoord | 17 | 12 | 3 | 2 | 50 | 16 | 34 | 39 |
| 3 | FC Twente | 17 | 11 | 4 | 2 | 36 | 20 | 16 | 37 |
| 4 | AZ AlkmaarAZ | 17 | 10 | 3 | 4 | 36 | 16 | 20 | 33 |
| 5 | Ajax | 17 | 8 | 4 | 5 | 38 | 32 | 6 | 28 |
| 6 | Sparta RotterdamSparta | 17 | 7 | 4 | 6 | 24 | 22 | 2 | 25 |
| 7 | Go Ahead Eagles | 17 | 6 | 5 | 6 | 28 | 26 | 2 | 23 |
| 8 | NECNijmegen | 17 | 5 | 7 | 5 | 33 | 30 | 3 | 22 |
| 9 | Heerenveen | 17 | 6 | 2 | 9 | 26 | 32 | -6 | 20 |
| 10 | PEC Zwolle | 17 | 5 | 4 | 8 | 25 | 30 | -5 | 19 |
| 11 | Fortuna SittardSittard | 17 | 5 | 4 | 8 | 17 | 30 | -13 | 19 |
| 12 | Almere CityAlmere City | 17 | 5 | 4 | 8 | 19 | 34 | -15 | 19 |
| 13 | FC UtrechtUtrecht | 17 | 4 | 6 | 7 | 17 | 26 | -9 | 18 |
| 14 | Heracles | 17 | 5 | 3 | 9 | 22 | 40 | -18 | 18 |
| 15 | SBV ExcelsiorExcelsior | 17 | 3 | 8 | 6 | 28 | 35 | -7 | 17 |
| 16 | RKC WaalwijkRKC Waalwijk | 17 | 4 | 2 | 11 | 16 | 30 | -14 | 14 |
| 17 | Vitesse | 17 | 3 | 3 | 11 | 12 | 37 | -25 | 12 |
| 18 | FC VolendamVolendam | 17 | 3 | 2 | 12 | 18 | 41 | -23 | 11 |
| > Eredivisie Full Table | |||||||||
