Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Heerenveen win with a probability of 53.34%. A win for Groningen had a probability of 23.46% and a draw had a probability of 23.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Heerenveen win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.81%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.79%) and 2-0 (8.8%). The likeliest Groningen win was 0-1 (6.08%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.91%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 5.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Heerenveen would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Heerenveen | Draw | Groningen |
| 53.34% ( | 23.19% ( | 23.46% ( |
| Both teams to score 55.95% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 55.54% ( | 44.45% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 33.17% ( | 66.82% ( |
| Heerenveen Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 83.37% ( | 16.62% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 53.54% ( | 46.45% ( |
| Groningen Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 67.11% ( | 32.89% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 30.53% ( | 69.46% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| Heerenveen | Draw | Groningen |
| 1-0 @ 9.81% ( 2-1 @ 9.79% ( 2-0 @ 8.8% ( 3-1 @ 5.85% ( 3-0 @ 5.26% ( 3-2 @ 3.26% ( 4-1 @ 2.63% ( 4-0 @ 2.36% ( 4-2 @ 1.46% ( 5-1 @ 0.94% ( Other @ 3.18% Total : 53.34% | 1-1 @ 10.91% ( 0-0 @ 5.47% ( 2-2 @ 5.44% ( 3-3 @ 1.21% ( Other @ 0.16% Total : 23.19% | 0-1 @ 6.08% ( 1-2 @ 6.07% ( 0-2 @ 3.38% ( 1-3 @ 2.25% ( 2-3 @ 2.02% ( 0-3 @ 1.25% ( Other @ 2.42% Total : 23.46% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Feyenoord | 26 | 18 | 7 | 1 | 59 | 25 | 34 | 61 |
| 2 | Ajax | 26 | 16 | 7 | 3 | 72 | 28 | 44 | 55 |
| 3 | PSV EindhovenPSV | 26 | 16 | 5 | 5 | 67 | 31 | 36 | 53 |
| 4 | AZ AlkmaarAZ | 26 | 16 | 5 | 5 | 52 | 30 | 22 | 53 |
| 5 | FC Twente | 26 | 13 | 8 | 5 | 44 | 22 | 22 | 47 |
| 6 | Sparta RotterdamSparta | 26 | 13 | 7 | 6 | 41 | 27 | 14 | 46 |
| 7 | FC UtrechtUtrecht | 26 | 10 | 8 | 8 | 42 | 41 | 1 | 38 |
| 8 | NECNijmegen | 26 | 7 | 13 | 6 | 35 | 26 | 9 | 34 |
| 9 | Heerenveen | 26 | 9 | 7 | 10 | 31 | 36 | -5 | 34 |
| 10 | RKC WaalwijkRKC Waalwijk | 25 | 8 | 8 | 9 | 40 | 40 | 0 | 32 |
| 11 | Go Ahead Eagles | 25 | 7 | 8 | 10 | 36 | 44 | -8 | 29 |
| 12 | Fortuna SittardSittard | 26 | 8 | 5 | 13 | 32 | 46 | -14 | 29 |
| 13 | FC VolendamVolendam | 26 | 7 | 5 | 14 | 31 | 56 | -25 | 26 |
| 14 | Vitesse | 26 | 5 | 9 | 12 | 30 | 46 | -16 | 24 |
| 15 | SBV ExcelsiorExcelsior | 26 | 7 | 2 | 17 | 25 | 61 | -36 | 23 |
| 16 | EmmenEmmen | 26 | 4 | 9 | 13 | 23 | 45 | -22 | 21 |
| 17 | Groningen | 26 | 4 | 5 | 17 | 25 | 52 | -27 | 17 |
| 18 | Cambuur | 26 | 4 | 4 | 18 | 20 | 49 | -29 | 16 |
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