Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Heerenveen win with a probability of 54.44%. A win for FC Volendam had a probability of 23.24% and a draw had a probability of 22.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Heerenveen win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.81%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.82%) and 0-2 (8.39%). The likeliest FC Volendam win was 2-1 (6.03%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.31%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 6.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Heerenveen would win this match.
| Result | ||
| FC Volendam | Draw | Heerenveen |
| 23.24% ( | 22.32% ( | 54.44% ( |
| Both teams to score 58.64% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 59.24% ( | 40.76% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 36.85% ( | 63.14% ( |
| FC Volendam Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 68.94% ( | 31.06% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 32.63% ( | 67.37% ( |
| Heerenveen Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 85.06% ( | 14.94% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 56.65% ( | 43.34% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| FC Volendam | Draw | Heerenveen |
| 2-1 @ 6.03% ( 1-0 @ 5.43% ( 2-0 @ 3.17% ( 3-1 @ 2.35% ( 3-2 @ 2.24% ( 3-0 @ 1.24% ( Other @ 2.79% Total : 23.24% | 1-1 @ 10.31% ( 2-2 @ 5.73% ( 0-0 @ 4.64% ( 3-3 @ 1.42% ( Other @ 0.22% Total : 22.31% | 1-2 @ 9.81% ( 0-1 @ 8.82% ( 0-2 @ 8.39% ( 1-3 @ 6.21% ( 0-3 @ 5.31% ( 2-3 @ 3.63% ( 1-4 @ 2.95% ( 0-4 @ 2.53% ( 2-4 @ 1.73% ( 1-5 @ 1.12% ( 0-5 @ 0.96% ( Other @ 2.98% Total : 54.44% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Feyenoord | 27 | 19 | 7 | 1 | 62 | 26 | 36 | 64 |
| 2 | PSV EindhovenPSV | 28 | 18 | 5 | 5 | 75 | 33 | 42 | 59 |
| 3 | Ajax | 27 | 16 | 8 | 3 | 72 | 28 | 44 | 56 |
| 4 | AZ AlkmaarAZ | 28 | 16 | 6 | 6 | 53 | 32 | 21 | 54 |
| 5 | Sparta RotterdamSparta | 28 | 14 | 7 | 7 | 43 | 30 | 13 | 49 |
| 6 | FC Twente | 27 | 13 | 9 | 5 | 44 | 22 | 22 | 48 |
| 7 | FC UtrechtUtrecht | 28 | 11 | 9 | 8 | 44 | 42 | 2 | 42 |
| 8 | Heerenveen | 28 | 10 | 8 | 10 | 34 | 38 | -4 | 38 |
| 9 | RKC WaalwijkRKC Waalwijk | 26 | 9 | 8 | 9 | 41 | 40 | 1 | 35 |
| 10 | NECNijmegen | 27 | 7 | 13 | 7 | 37 | 30 | 7 | 34 |
| 11 | Fortuna SittardSittard | 27 | 9 | 5 | 13 | 35 | 47 | -12 | 32 |
| 12 | Go Ahead Eagles | 27 | 7 | 9 | 11 | 36 | 46 | -10 | 30 |
| 13 | Vitesse | 28 | 6 | 9 | 13 | 32 | 47 | -15 | 27 |
| 14 | FC VolendamVolendam | 28 | 7 | 6 | 15 | 32 | 58 | -26 | 27 |
| 15 | EmmenEmmen | 27 | 5 | 9 | 13 | 25 | 46 | -21 | 24 |
| 16 | SBV ExcelsiorExcelsior | 28 | 7 | 3 | 18 | 25 | 65 | -40 | 24 |
| 17 | Groningen | 28 | 4 | 5 | 19 | 27 | 57 | -30 | 17 |
| 18 | Cambuur | 27 | 4 | 4 | 19 | 21 | 51 | -30 | 16 |
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