| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Ajax | 5 | 13 | 15 |
| 2 | Feyenoord | 5 | 9 | 13 |
| 3 | AZ Alkmaar | 5 | 7 | 13 |
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 5 | FC Twente | 5 | 8 | 12 |
| 6 | Heerenveen | 5 | 5 | 9 |
| 7 | Sparta Rotterdam | 5 | 3 | 7 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ajax win with a probability of 86.43%. A draw had a probability of 8.9% and a win for Heerenveen had a probability of 4.66%.
The most likely scoreline for an Ajax win was 3-0 with a probability of 10.19%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.91%) and 4-0 (8.74%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (3.94%), while for a Heerenveen win it was 1-2 (1.5%). The actual scoreline of 5-0 was predicted with a 6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Ajax would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Ajax | Draw | Heerenveen |
| 86.43% ( | 8.91% ( | 4.66% ( |
| Both teams to score 51.47% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 78.84% ( | 21.15% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 60.28% ( | 39.72% ( |
| Ajax Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 96.76% ( | 3.23% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 85.66% ( | 14.33% ( |
| Heerenveen Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 53.19% ( | 46.8% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 17.66% ( | 82.33% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| Ajax | Draw | Heerenveen |
| 3-0 @ 10.19% ( 2-0 @ 8.91% ( 4-0 @ 8.74% ( 3-1 @ 7.74% ( 2-1 @ 6.77% ( 4-1 @ 6.64% ( 5-0 @ 6% ( 1-0 @ 5.2% ( 5-1 @ 4.56% ( 6-0 @ 3.43% ( 3-2 @ 2.94% ( 6-1 @ 2.61% ( 4-2 @ 2.52% ( 5-2 @ 1.73% ( 7-0 @ 1.68% ( 7-1 @ 1.28% ( 6-2 @ 0.99% ( Other @ 4.51% Total : 86.42% | 1-1 @ 3.94% ( 2-2 @ 2.57% ( 0-0 @ 1.51% ( Other @ 0.88% Total : 8.91% | 1-2 @ 1.5% ( 0-1 @ 1.15% ( Other @ 2.01% Total : 4.66% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Feyenoord | 25 | 17 | 7 | 1 | 56 | 23 | 33 | 58 |
| 2 | Ajax | 25 | 16 | 7 | 2 | 70 | 25 | 45 | 55 |
| 3 | AZ AlkmaarAZ | 25 | 16 | 5 | 4 | 51 | 28 | 23 | 53 |
| 4 | PSV EindhovenPSV | 25 | 16 | 4 | 5 | 66 | 30 | 36 | 52 |
| 5 | FC Twente | 25 | 12 | 8 | 5 | 42 | 21 | 21 | 44 |
| 6 | Sparta RotterdamSparta | 25 | 12 | 7 | 6 | 39 | 27 | 12 | 43 |
| 7 | FC UtrechtUtrecht | 25 | 10 | 8 | 7 | 41 | 39 | 2 | 38 |
| 8 | RKC WaalwijkRKC Waalwijk | 24 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 39 | 37 | 2 | 32 |
| 9 | NECNijmegen | 25 | 6 | 13 | 6 | 32 | 25 | 7 | 31 |
| 10 | Heerenveen | 25 | 8 | 7 | 10 | 29 | 36 | -7 | 31 |
| 11 | Fortuna SittardSittard | 25 | 8 | 5 | 12 | 31 | 44 | -13 | 29 |
| 12 | Go Ahead Eagles | 24 | 6 | 8 | 10 | 34 | 43 | -9 | 26 |
| 13 | Vitesse | 25 | 5 | 8 | 12 | 29 | 45 | -16 | 23 |
| 14 | FC VolendamVolendam | 25 | 6 | 5 | 14 | 29 | 55 | -26 | 23 |
| 15 | EmmenEmmen | 25 | 4 | 9 | 12 | 23 | 43 | -20 | 21 |
| 16 | SBV ExcelsiorExcelsior | 25 | 6 | 2 | 17 | 21 | 60 | -39 | 20 |
| 17 | Groningen | 25 | 4 | 5 | 16 | 25 | 50 | -25 | 17 |
| 18 | Cambuur | 25 | 4 | 4 | 17 | 19 | 45 | -26 | 16 |
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