

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Melbourne Victory win with a probability of 48.32%. A win for Western United had a probability of 28.14% and a draw had a probability of 23.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Melbourne Victory win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.46%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.53%) and 2-0 (7.42%). The likeliest Western United win was 1-2 (6.94%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.87%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 6.9% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Melbourne Victory | Draw | Western United |
| 48.32% ( | 23.53% ( | 28.14% ( |
| Both teams to score 59.43% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 58.03% ( | 41.96% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 35.63% ( | 64.37% ( |
| Melbourne Victory Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 82.44% ( | 17.56% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 51.9% ( | 48.1% ( |
| Western United Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 72.08% ( | 27.91% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 36.46% ( | 63.53% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| Melbourne Victory | Draw | Western United |
| 2-1 @ 9.46% ( 1-0 @ 8.53% ( 2-0 @ 7.42% ( 3-1 @ 5.49% ( 3-0 @ 4.3% ( 3-2 @ 3.5% ( 4-1 @ 2.39% ( 4-0 @ 1.87% ( 4-2 @ 1.52% ( Other @ 3.84% Total : 48.32% | 1-1 @ 10.87% ( 2-2 @ 6.04% ( 0-0 @ 4.9% ( 3-3 @ 1.49% ( Other @ 0.23% Total : 23.52% | 1-2 @ 6.94% ( 0-1 @ 6.25% ( 0-2 @ 3.99% ( 1-3 @ 2.95% ( 2-3 @ 2.57% ( 0-3 @ 1.7% ( 1-4 @ 0.94% ( Other @ 2.8% Total : 28.14% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Melbourne CityMelbourne City | 26 | 16 | 7 | 3 | 61 | 32 | 29 | 55 |
| 2 | Central Coast MarinersCentral Coast | 26 | 13 | 5 | 8 | 55 | 35 | 20 | 44 |
| 3 | Adelaide UnitedAdelaide United | 26 | 11 | 9 | 6 | 53 | 46 | 7 | 42 |
| 4 | Western Sydney WanderersWestern Sydney | 26 | 11 | 8 | 7 | 43 | 27 | 16 | 41 |
| 5 | Sydney FCSydney FC | 26 | 11 | 5 | 10 | 40 | 39 | 1 | 38 |
| 6 | Wellington PhoenixWellington | 26 | 9 | 8 | 9 | 39 | 45 | -6 | 35 |
| 7 | Western UnitedWestern Utd | 26 | 9 | 5 | 12 | 34 | 47 | -13 | 32 |
| 8 | Brisbane RoarBrisbane Roar | 26 | 7 | 9 | 10 | 26 | 33 | -7 | 30 |
| 9 | Perth GloryPerth Glory | 26 | 7 | 8 | 11 | 36 | 46 | -10 | 29 |
| 10 | Newcastle JetsNewcastle Jets | 26 | 8 | 5 | 13 | 30 | 45 | -15 | 29 |
| 11 | Melbourne VictoryVictory | 26 | 8 | 4 | 14 | 29 | 34 | -5 | 28 |
| 12 | Macarthur | 26 | 7 | 5 | 14 | 31 | 48 | -17 | 26 |
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