Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Melbourne Victory win with a probability of 46.6%. A win for Wellington Phoenix had a probability of 28.71% and a draw had a probability of 24.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Melbourne Victory win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.67%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.34%) and 2-0 (7.75%). The likeliest Wellington Phoenix win was 0-1 (7.27%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.65%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Melbourne Victory would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Melbourne Victory | Draw | Wellington Phoenix |
| 46.6% ( | 24.68% ( | 28.71% ( |
| Both teams to score 55.92% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 53.23% ( | 46.77% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 30.97% ( | 69.03% ( |
| Melbourne Victory Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 79.86% ( | 20.14% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 47.58% ( | 52.42% ( |
| Wellington Phoenix Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 70.03% ( | 29.97% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 33.92% ( | 66.08% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| Melbourne Victory | Draw | Wellington Phoenix |
| 1-0 @ 9.67% ( 2-1 @ 9.34% ( 2-0 @ 7.75% ( 3-1 @ 4.99% ( 3-0 @ 4.14% ( 3-2 @ 3.01% ( 4-1 @ 2% ( 4-0 @ 1.66% ( 4-2 @ 1.2% ( Other @ 2.85% Total : 46.6% | 1-1 @ 11.65% ( 0-0 @ 6.04% ( 2-2 @ 5.63% ( 3-3 @ 1.21% ( Other @ 0.16% Total : 24.68% | 0-1 @ 7.27% ( 1-2 @ 7.02% ( 0-2 @ 4.38% ( 1-3 @ 2.82% ( 2-3 @ 2.26% ( 0-3 @ 1.76% ( Other @ 3.2% Total : 28.71% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Melbourne CityMelbourne City | 20 | 12 | 5 | 3 | 47 | 25 | 22 | 41 |
| 2 | Adelaide UnitedAdelaide United | 22 | 11 | 7 | 4 | 47 | 36 | 11 | 40 |
| 3 | Central Coast MarinersCentral Coast | 22 | 10 | 4 | 8 | 44 | 32 | 12 | 34 |
| 4 | Western Sydney WanderersWestern Sydney | 22 | 9 | 7 | 6 | 33 | 21 | 12 | 34 |
| 5 | Wellington PhoenixWellington | 22 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 35 | 35 | 0 | 31 |
| 6 | Sydney FCSydney FC | 22 | 8 | 4 | 10 | 31 | 37 | -6 | 28 |
| 7 | Perth GloryPerth Glory | 22 | 7 | 6 | 9 | 30 | 36 | -6 | 27 |
| 8 | Western UnitedWestern Utd | 22 | 7 | 5 | 10 | 30 | 40 | -10 | 26 |
| 9 | Newcastle JetsNewcastle Jets | 21 | 7 | 4 | 10 | 26 | 35 | -9 | 25 |
| 10 | Macarthur | 22 | 7 | 4 | 11 | 27 | 41 | -14 | 25 |
| 11 | Melbourne VictoryVictory | 21 | 7 | 3 | 11 | 25 | 28 | -3 | 24 |
| 12 | Brisbane RoarBrisbane Roar | 22 | 5 | 8 | 9 | 20 | 29 | -9 | 23 |
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