Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Melbourne Victory win with a probability of 47.67%. A win for Perth Glory had a probability of 27.2% and a draw had a probability of 25.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Melbourne Victory win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.65%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.36%) and 0-2 (8.35%). The likeliest Perth Glory win was 1-0 (7.62%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.94%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 2.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that Perth Glory would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Perth Glory | Draw | Melbourne Victory |
| 27.2% ( | 25.13% ( | 47.67% ( |
| Both teams to score 53.35% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 50.37% ( | 49.63% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 28.35% ( | 71.65% ( |
| Perth Glory Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 67.4% ( | 32.59% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 30.86% ( | 69.13% ( |
| Melbourne Victory Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 79.15% ( | 20.84% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 46.47% ( | 53.53% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| Perth Glory | Draw | Melbourne Victory |
| 1-0 @ 7.62% ( 2-1 @ 6.69% ( 2-0 @ 4.27% ( 3-1 @ 2.5% ( 3-2 @ 1.96% ( 3-0 @ 1.6% ( Other @ 2.56% Total : 27.2% | 1-1 @ 11.94% ( 0-0 @ 6.79% ( 2-2 @ 5.25% ( 3-3 @ 1.03% ( Other @ 0.12% Total : 25.13% | 0-1 @ 10.65% ( 1-2 @ 9.36% ( 0-2 @ 8.35% ( 1-3 @ 4.9% ( 0-3 @ 4.37% ( 2-3 @ 2.74% ( 1-4 @ 1.92% ( 0-4 @ 1.71% ( 2-4 @ 1.08% ( Other @ 2.58% Total : 47.66% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Melbourne CityMelbourne City | 22 | 13 | 6 | 3 | 50 | 27 | 23 | 45 |
| 2 | Adelaide UnitedAdelaide United | 23 | 11 | 8 | 4 | 48 | 37 | 11 | 41 |
| 3 | Central Coast MarinersCentral Coast | 23 | 11 | 4 | 8 | 47 | 32 | 15 | 37 |
| 4 | Western Sydney WanderersWestern Sydney | 23 | 9 | 8 | 6 | 35 | 23 | 12 | 35 |
| 5 | Wellington PhoenixWellington | 22 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 35 | 35 | 0 | 31 |
| 6 | Sydney FCSydney FC | 23 | 8 | 5 | 10 | 32 | 38 | -6 | 29 |
| 7 | Perth GloryPerth Glory | 23 | 7 | 7 | 9 | 30 | 36 | -6 | 28 |
| 8 | Brisbane RoarBrisbane Roar | 23 | 6 | 8 | 9 | 23 | 29 | -6 | 26 |
| 9 | Newcastle JetsNewcastle Jets | 23 | 7 | 5 | 11 | 27 | 39 | -12 | 26 |
| 10 | Western UnitedWestern Utd | 23 | 7 | 5 | 11 | 30 | 43 | -13 | 26 |
| 11 | Macarthur | 23 | 7 | 5 | 11 | 29 | 43 | -14 | 26 |
| 12 | Melbourne VictoryVictory | 23 | 7 | 4 | 12 | 26 | 30 | -4 | 25 |
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