Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Adelaide United win with a probability of 40.74%. A win for Melbourne Victory had a probability of 33.74% and a draw had a probability of 25.5%.
The most likely scoreline for an Adelaide United win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.34%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.74%) and 2-0 (6.76%). The likeliest Melbourne Victory win was 0-1 (8.35%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.08%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.1% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Adelaide United | Draw | Melbourne Victory |
| 40.74% ( | 25.51% ( | 33.74% ( |
| Both teams to score 55.49% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 51.61% ( | 48.39% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 29.47% ( | 70.53% ( |
| Adelaide United Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 76.46% ( | 23.54% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 42.41% ( | 57.59% ( |
| Melbourne Victory Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 72.57% ( | 27.43% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 37.09% ( | 62.91% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| Adelaide United | Draw | Melbourne Victory |
| 1-0 @ 9.34% ( 2-1 @ 8.74% ( 2-0 @ 6.76% ( 3-1 @ 4.21% ( 3-0 @ 3.26% ( 3-2 @ 2.73% ( 4-1 @ 1.52% ( 4-0 @ 1.18% ( 4-2 @ 0.99% ( Other @ 2.03% Total : 40.74% | 1-1 @ 12.08% ( 0-0 @ 6.46% ( 2-2 @ 5.65% ( 3-3 @ 1.18% ( Other @ 0.15% Total : 25.51% | 0-1 @ 8.35% ( 1-2 @ 7.81% ( 0-2 @ 5.4% ( 1-3 @ 3.37% ( 2-3 @ 2.44% ( 0-3 @ 2.33% ( 1-4 @ 1.09% ( Other @ 2.95% Total : 33.74% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Melbourne CityMelbourne City | 17 | 11 | 4 | 2 | 42 | 19 | 23 | 37 |
| 2 | Central Coast MarinersCentral Coast | 18 | 8 | 4 | 6 | 36 | 26 | 10 | 28 |
| 3 | Western Sydney WanderersWestern Sydney | 18 | 7 | 7 | 4 | 25 | 17 | 8 | 28 |
| 4 | Adelaide UnitedAdelaide United | 18 | 7 | 7 | 4 | 31 | 29 | 2 | 28 |
| 5 | Wellington PhoenixWellington | 18 | 6 | 7 | 5 | 30 | 27 | 3 | 25 |
| 6 | Sydney FCSydney FC | 18 | 7 | 3 | 8 | 27 | 29 | -2 | 24 |
| 7 | Newcastle JetsNewcastle Jets | 18 | 7 | 3 | 8 | 21 | 27 | -6 | 24 |
| 8 | Macarthur | 18 | 6 | 3 | 9 | 21 | 32 | -11 | 21 |
| 9 | Brisbane RoarBrisbane Roar | 18 | 4 | 8 | 6 | 15 | 20 | -5 | 20 |
| 10 | Perth GloryPerth Glory | 18 | 5 | 5 | 8 | 24 | 31 | -7 | 20 |
| 11 | Western UnitedWestern Utd | 18 | 5 | 4 | 9 | 23 | 34 | -11 | 19 |
| 12 | Melbourne VictoryVictory | 17 | 5 | 3 | 9 | 20 | 24 | -4 | 18 |
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