

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Adelaide United win with a probability of 43.15%. A win for Wellington Phoenix had a probability of 33.47% and a draw had a probability of 23.4%.
The most likely scoreline for an Adelaide United win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.91%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.11%) and 0-2 (6.05%). The likeliest Wellington Phoenix win was 2-1 (7.73%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.48%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 3.8% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Wellington Phoenix | Draw | Adelaide United |
| 33.47% ( | 23.38% ( | 43.15% ( |
| Both teams to score 63.02% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 61.48% ( | 38.52% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 39.18% ( | 60.82% ( |
| Wellington Phoenix Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 77.1% ( | 22.9% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 43.35% ( | 56.65% ( |
| Adelaide United Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 81.74% ( | 18.26% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 50.69% ( | 49.31% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| Wellington Phoenix | Draw | Adelaide United |
| 2-1 @ 7.73% ( 1-0 @ 6.16% ( 2-0 @ 4.54% ( 3-1 @ 3.8% ( 3-2 @ 3.23% ( 3-0 @ 2.23% ( 4-1 @ 1.4% ( 4-2 @ 1.19% ( Other @ 3.19% Total : 33.47% | 1-1 @ 10.48% ( 2-2 @ 6.57% ( 0-0 @ 4.18% ( 3-3 @ 1.83% ( Other @ 0.32% Total : 23.38% | 1-2 @ 8.91% ( 0-1 @ 7.11% ( 0-2 @ 6.05% ( 1-3 @ 5.05% ( 2-3 @ 3.72% ( 0-3 @ 3.43% ( 1-4 @ 2.15% ( 2-4 @ 1.58% ( 0-4 @ 1.46% ( Other @ 3.7% Total : 43.15% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Melbourne CityMelbourne City | 26 | 16 | 7 | 3 | 61 | 32 | 29 | 55 |
| 2 | Central Coast MarinersCentral Coast | 26 | 13 | 5 | 8 | 55 | 35 | 20 | 44 |
| 3 | Adelaide UnitedAdelaide United | 26 | 11 | 9 | 6 | 53 | 46 | 7 | 42 |
| 4 | Western Sydney WanderersWestern Sydney | 26 | 11 | 8 | 7 | 43 | 27 | 16 | 41 |
| 5 | Sydney FCSydney FC | 26 | 11 | 5 | 10 | 40 | 39 | 1 | 38 |
| 6 | Wellington PhoenixWellington | 26 | 9 | 8 | 9 | 39 | 45 | -6 | 35 |
| 7 | Western UnitedWestern Utd | 26 | 9 | 5 | 12 | 34 | 47 | -13 | 32 |
| 8 | Brisbane RoarBrisbane Roar | 26 | 7 | 9 | 10 | 26 | 33 | -7 | 30 |
| 9 | Perth GloryPerth Glory | 26 | 7 | 8 | 11 | 36 | 46 | -10 | 29 |
| 10 | Newcastle JetsNewcastle Jets | 26 | 8 | 5 | 13 | 30 | 45 | -15 | 29 |
| 11 | Melbourne VictoryVictory | 26 | 8 | 4 | 14 | 29 | 34 | -5 | 28 |
| 12 | Macarthur | 26 | 7 | 5 | 14 | 31 | 48 | -17 | 26 |
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