Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Macarthur win with a probability of 40.8%. A win for Wellington Phoenix had a probability of 34.72% and a draw had a probability of 24.5%.

The most likely scoreline for a Macarthur win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.77%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.08%) and 0-2 (6.24%). The likeliest Wellington Phoenix win was 2-1 (7.99%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.36%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 1.3% likelihood.