Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Wellington Phoenix win with a probability of 40.44%. A win for Central Coast Mariners had a probability of 35.24% and a draw had a probability of 24.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Wellington Phoenix win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.72%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.84%) and 2-0 (6.08%). The likeliest Central Coast Mariners win was 1-2 (8.06%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.23%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 6.3% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Wellington Phoenix | Draw | Central Coast Mariners |
| 40.44% ( | 24.32% ( | 35.24% ( |
| Both teams to score 60.03% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 57.37% ( | 42.63% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 34.97% ( | 65.03% ( |
| Wellington Phoenix Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 78.82% ( | 21.17% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 45.95% ( | 54.05% ( |
| Central Coast Mariners Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 76.16% ( | 23.83% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 41.98% ( | 58.01% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| Wellington Phoenix | Draw | Central Coast Mariners |
| 2-1 @ 8.72% ( 1-0 @ 7.84% ( 2-0 @ 6.08% ( 3-1 @ 4.51% ( 3-2 @ 3.24% ( 3-0 @ 3.15% ( 4-1 @ 1.75% ( 4-2 @ 1.26% ( 4-0 @ 1.22% ( Other @ 2.69% Total : 40.44% | 1-1 @ 11.23% ( 2-2 @ 6.25% ( 0-0 @ 5.05% ( 3-3 @ 1.55% ( Other @ 0.24% Total : 24.31% | 1-2 @ 8.06% ( 0-1 @ 7.24% ( 0-2 @ 5.19% ( 1-3 @ 3.85% ( 2-3 @ 2.99% ( 0-3 @ 2.48% ( 1-4 @ 1.38% ( 2-4 @ 1.07% ( Other @ 2.98% Total : 35.24% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Melbourne CityMelbourne City | 16 | 10 | 4 | 2 | 39 | 17 | 22 | 34 |
| 2 | Central Coast MarinersCentral Coast | 18 | 8 | 4 | 6 | 36 | 26 | 10 | 28 |
| 3 | Adelaide UnitedAdelaide United | 17 | 7 | 6 | 4 | 30 | 28 | 2 | 27 |
| 4 | Western Sydney WanderersWestern Sydney | 17 | 6 | 7 | 4 | 21 | 17 | 4 | 25 |
| 5 | Wellington PhoenixWellington | 18 | 6 | 7 | 5 | 30 | 27 | 3 | 25 |
| 6 | Sydney FCSydney FC | 17 | 7 | 3 | 7 | 25 | 26 | -1 | 24 |
| 7 | Newcastle JetsNewcastle Jets | 17 | 7 | 3 | 7 | 20 | 24 | -4 | 24 |
| 8 | Macarthur | 17 | 6 | 3 | 8 | 21 | 28 | -7 | 21 |
| 9 | Perth GloryPerth Glory | 17 | 5 | 5 | 7 | 23 | 29 | -6 | 20 |
| 10 | Melbourne VictoryVictory | 16 | 5 | 2 | 9 | 19 | 23 | -4 | 17 |
| 11 | Brisbane RoarBrisbane Roar | 17 | 3 | 8 | 6 | 13 | 19 | -6 | 17 |
| 12 | Western UnitedWestern Utd | 17 | 4 | 4 | 9 | 20 | 33 | -13 | 16 |
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