Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Melbourne City win with a probability of 66.15%. A draw had a probability of 19.1% and a win for Wellington Phoenix had a probability of 14.74%.

The most likely scoreline for a Melbourne City win was 2-0 with a probability of 10.56%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.84%) and 1-0 (9.62%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.96%), while for a Wellington Phoenix win it was 1-2 (4.18%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 4.6% likelihood.