Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Melbourne City win with a probability of 53.91%. A draw had a probability of 23.6% and a win for Brisbane Roar had a probability of 22.46%.
The most likely scoreline for a Melbourne City win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.81%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.77%) and 0-2 (9.42%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.21%), while for a Brisbane Roar win it was 1-0 (6.44%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 9.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Melbourne City would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Brisbane Roar | Draw | Melbourne City |
| 22.46% ( | 23.63% ( | 53.91% ( |
| Both teams to score 53.26% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 52.58% ( | 47.42% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 30.36% ( | 69.63% ( |
| Brisbane Roar Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 64.56% ( | 35.44% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 27.8% ( | 72.2% ( |
| Melbourne City Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 82.49% ( | 17.5% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 51.99% ( | 48.01% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| Brisbane Roar | Draw | Melbourne City |
| 1-0 @ 6.44% ( 2-1 @ 5.82% ( 2-0 @ 3.34% ( 3-1 @ 2.01% ( 3-2 @ 1.75% ( 3-0 @ 1.15% ( Other @ 1.95% Total : 22.46% | 1-1 @ 11.21% ( 0-0 @ 6.2% ( 2-2 @ 5.07% ( 3-3 @ 1.02% ( Other @ 0.12% Total : 23.62% | 0-1 @ 10.81% ( 1-2 @ 9.77% ( 0-2 @ 9.42% ( 1-3 @ 5.68% ( 0-3 @ 5.47% ( 2-3 @ 2.95% ( 1-4 @ 2.47% ( 0-4 @ 2.38% ( 2-4 @ 1.28% ( Other @ 3.67% Total : 53.91% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Melbourne CityMelbourne City | 19 | 12 | 4 | 3 | 46 | 24 | 22 | 40 |
| 2 | Adelaide UnitedAdelaide United | 20 | 9 | 7 | 4 | 39 | 33 | 6 | 34 |
| 3 | Central Coast MarinersCentral Coast | 20 | 9 | 4 | 7 | 40 | 29 | 11 | 31 |
| 4 | Western Sydney WanderersWestern Sydney | 20 | 8 | 7 | 5 | 27 | 18 | 9 | 31 |
| 5 | Wellington PhoenixWellington | 20 | 8 | 7 | 5 | 33 | 28 | 5 | 31 |
| 6 | Sydney FCSydney FC | 20 | 8 | 3 | 9 | 28 | 30 | -2 | 27 |
| 7 | Newcastle JetsNewcastle Jets | 20 | 7 | 3 | 10 | 24 | 33 | -9 | 24 |
| 8 | Macarthur | 20 | 7 | 3 | 10 | 25 | 38 | -13 | 24 |
| 9 | Perth GloryPerth Glory | 20 | 6 | 5 | 9 | 26 | 33 | -7 | 23 |
| 10 | Western UnitedWestern Utd | 19 | 6 | 4 | 9 | 25 | 35 | -10 | 22 |
| 11 | Brisbane RoarBrisbane Roar | 20 | 4 | 8 | 8 | 18 | 25 | -7 | 20 |
| 12 | Melbourne VictoryVictory | 18 | 5 | 3 | 10 | 20 | 25 | -5 | 18 |
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