Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Melbourne City win with a probability of 56.09%. A draw had a probability of 22.9% and a win for Melbourne Victory had a probability of 21%.
The most likely scoreline for a Melbourne City win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.65%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.87%) and 0-2 (9.68%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.85%), while for a Melbourne Victory win it was 1-0 (5.98%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 9.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Melbourne City would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Melbourne Victory | Draw | Melbourne City |
| 21% ( | 22.91% ( | 56.09% ( |
| Both teams to score 53.53% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 53.92% ( | 46.08% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 31.62% ( | 68.38% ( |
| Melbourne Victory Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 63.91% ( | 36.09% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 27.13% ( | 72.87% ( |
| Melbourne City Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 83.76% ( | 16.25% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 54.23% ( | 45.77% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| Melbourne Victory | Draw | Melbourne City |
| 1-0 @ 5.98% ( 2-1 @ 5.53% ( 2-0 @ 3.05% ( 3-1 @ 1.88% ( 3-2 @ 1.71% ( 3-0 @ 1.03% ( Other @ 1.82% Total : 21% | 1-1 @ 10.85% 0-0 @ 5.86% ( 2-2 @ 5.03% ( 3-3 @ 1.04% ( Other @ 0.13% Total : 22.91% | 0-1 @ 10.65% ( 1-2 @ 9.87% 0-2 @ 9.68% ( 1-3 @ 5.98% ( 0-3 @ 5.87% ( 2-3 @ 3.05% ( 1-4 @ 2.72% ( 0-4 @ 2.67% ( 2-4 @ 1.38% ( 1-5 @ 0.99% ( 0-5 @ 0.97% ( Other @ 2.27% Total : 56.08% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Melbourne CityMelbourne City | 22 | 13 | 6 | 3 | 50 | 27 | 23 | 45 |
| 2 | Adelaide UnitedAdelaide United | 22 | 11 | 7 | 4 | 47 | 36 | 11 | 40 |
| 3 | Central Coast MarinersCentral Coast | 22 | 10 | 4 | 8 | 44 | 32 | 12 | 34 |
| 4 | Western Sydney WanderersWestern Sydney | 22 | 9 | 7 | 6 | 33 | 21 | 12 | 34 |
| 5 | Wellington PhoenixWellington | 22 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 35 | 35 | 0 | 31 |
| 6 | Sydney FCSydney FC | 22 | 8 | 4 | 10 | 31 | 37 | -6 | 28 |
| 7 | Perth GloryPerth Glory | 22 | 7 | 6 | 9 | 30 | 36 | -6 | 27 |
| 8 | Newcastle JetsNewcastle Jets | 22 | 7 | 5 | 10 | 27 | 36 | -9 | 26 |
| 9 | Western UnitedWestern Utd | 22 | 7 | 5 | 10 | 30 | 40 | -10 | 26 |
| 10 | Macarthur | 22 | 7 | 4 | 11 | 27 | 41 | -14 | 25 |
| 11 | Melbourne VictoryVictory | 22 | 7 | 3 | 12 | 26 | 30 | -4 | 24 |
| 12 | Brisbane RoarBrisbane Roar | 22 | 5 | 8 | 9 | 20 | 29 | -9 | 23 |
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