Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sydney FC win with a probability of 39.06%. A win for Melbourne Victory had a probability of 36.29% and a draw had a probability of 24.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sydney FC win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.57%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.02%) and 2-0 (5.99%). The likeliest Melbourne Victory win was 1-2 (8.21%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.47%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 2.9% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Sydney FC | Draw | Melbourne Victory |
| 39.06% ( | 24.64% ( | 36.29% ( |
| Both teams to score 59.01% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 55.97% ( | 44.03% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 33.59% ( | 66.41% ( |
| Sydney FC Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 77.54% ( | 22.46% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 44% ( | 56% ( |
| Melbourne Victory Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 76.1% ( | 23.9% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 41.89% ( | 58.11% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| Sydney FC | Draw | Melbourne Victory |
| 2-1 @ 8.57% ( 1-0 @ 8.02% ( 2-0 @ 5.99% ( 3-1 @ 4.27% ( 3-2 @ 3.05% ( 3-0 @ 2.98% ( 4-1 @ 1.59% ( 4-2 @ 1.14% ( 4-0 @ 1.11% ( Other @ 2.35% Total : 39.06% | 1-1 @ 11.47% ( 2-2 @ 6.13% ( 0-0 @ 5.37% ( 3-3 @ 1.46% ( Other @ 0.21% Total : 24.64% | 1-2 @ 8.21% ( 0-1 @ 7.68% 0-2 @ 5.5% ( 1-3 @ 3.92% ( 2-3 @ 2.93% ( 0-3 @ 2.62% ( 1-4 @ 1.4% ( 2-4 @ 1.05% ( 0-4 @ 0.94% ( Other @ 2.05% Total : 36.3% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Melbourne CityMelbourne City | 18 | 11 | 4 | 3 | 44 | 23 | 21 | 37 |
| 2 | Western Sydney WanderersWestern Sydney | 19 | 8 | 7 | 4 | 27 | 17 | 10 | 31 |
| 3 | Adelaide UnitedAdelaide United | 19 | 8 | 7 | 4 | 35 | 31 | 4 | 31 |
| 4 | Central Coast MarinersCentral Coast | 19 | 8 | 4 | 7 | 36 | 28 | 8 | 28 |
| 5 | Wellington PhoenixWellington | 19 | 7 | 7 | 5 | 32 | 28 | 4 | 28 |
| 6 | Sydney FCSydney FC | 19 | 8 | 3 | 8 | 28 | 29 | -1 | 27 |
| 7 | Newcastle JetsNewcastle Jets | 19 | 7 | 3 | 9 | 22 | 29 | -7 | 24 |
| 8 | Macarthur | 19 | 7 | 3 | 9 | 24 | 34 | -10 | 24 |
| 9 | Western UnitedWestern Utd | 19 | 6 | 4 | 9 | 25 | 35 | -10 | 22 |
| 10 | Brisbane RoarBrisbane Roar | 19 | 4 | 8 | 7 | 17 | 23 | -6 | 20 |
| 11 | Perth GloryPerth Glory | 19 | 5 | 5 | 9 | 25 | 33 | -8 | 20 |
| 12 | Melbourne VictoryVictory | 18 | 5 | 3 | 10 | 20 | 25 | -5 | 18 |
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