

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Brisbane Roar win with a probability of 42.21%. A win for Macarthur had a probability of 32.96% and a draw had a probability of 24.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Brisbane Roar win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.93%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.78%) and 0-2 (6.73%). The likeliest Macarthur win was 2-1 (7.73%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.65%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 2.6% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Macarthur | Draw | Brisbane Roar | 
| 32.96% ( | 24.83% ( | 42.21% ( | 
| Both teams to score 57.61% ( | 
| Goals | 
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 
| 54.46% ( | 45.54% ( | 
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 | 
| 32.14% ( | 67.86% ( | 
| Macarthur Goals | 
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 | 
| 73.46% ( | 26.54% ( | 
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 38.26% ( | 61.74% ( | 
| Brisbane Roar Goals | 
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 | 
| 78.41% ( | 21.59% ( | 
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 45.32% ( | 54.68% ( | 
| Score Analysis | 
| Macarthur | Draw | Brisbane Roar | 
| 2-1 @ 7.73% ( 1-0 @ 7.6% ( 2-0 @ 5.04% ( 3-1 @ 3.42% ( 3-2 @ 2.62% ( 3-0 @ 2.23% ( 4-1 @ 1.13% ( Other @ 3.19% Total : 32.96%  | 1-1 @ 11.65% ( 2-2 @ 5.92% ( 0-0 @ 5.73% ( 3-3 @ 1.34% ( Other @ 0.19% Total : 24.83%  | 1-2 @ 8.93% ( 0-1 @ 8.78% ( 0-2 @ 6.73% ( 1-3 @ 4.56% ( 0-3 @ 3.44% ( 2-3 @ 3.03% ( 1-4 @ 1.75% ( 0-4 @ 1.32% ( 2-4 @ 1.16% ( Other @ 2.51% Total : 42.22%  | 
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Melbourne CityMelbourne City | 25 | 15 | 7 | 3 | 58 | 30 | 28 | 52 | 
| 2 | Adelaide UnitedAdelaide United | 25 | 11 | 9 | 5 | 52 | 42 | 10 | 42 | 
| 3 | Central Coast MarinersCentral Coast | 25 | 12 | 5 | 8 | 51 | 34 | 17 | 41 | 
| 4 | Western Sydney WanderersWestern Sydney | 25 | 11 | 8 | 6 | 41 | 24 | 17 | 41 | 
| 5 | Sydney FCSydney FC | 25 | 10 | 5 | 10 | 38 | 39 | -1 | 35 | 
| 6 | Wellington PhoenixWellington | 25 | 8 | 8 | 9 | 38 | 45 | -7 | 32 | 
| 7 | Perth GloryPerth Glory | 25 | 7 | 8 | 10 | 35 | 44 | -9 | 29 | 
| 8 | Newcastle JetsNewcastle Jets | 25 | 8 | 5 | 12 | 30 | 43 | -13 | 29 | 
| 9 | Western UnitedWestern Utd | 25 | 8 | 5 | 12 | 32 | 46 | -14 | 29 | 
| 10 | Melbourne VictoryVictory | 25 | 8 | 4 | 13 | 29 | 33 | -4 | 28 | 
| 11 | Brisbane RoarBrisbane Roar | 25 | 6 | 9 | 10 | 25 | 33 | -8 | 27 | 
| 12 | Macarthur | 25 | 7 | 5 | 13 | 31 | 47 | -16 | 26 | 
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