Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Melbourne City win with a probability of 71.6%. A draw had a probability of 16.4% and a win for Macarthur had a probability of 11.96%.
The most likely scoreline for a Melbourne City win was 2-0 with a probability of 10.1%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.41%) and 3-0 (8.43%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.52%), while for a Macarthur win it was 1-2 (3.5%). The actual scoreline of 6-1 was predicted with a 1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Melbourne City would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Melbourne City | Draw | Macarthur |
| 71.6% ( | 16.44% ( | 11.96% ( |
| Both teams to score 55.62% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 66.67% ( | 33.32% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 44.9% ( | 55.1% ( |
| Melbourne City Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 91.81% ( | 8.19% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 71.32% ( | 28.67% ( |
| Macarthur Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 60.58% ( | 39.41% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 23.89% ( | 76.11% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| Melbourne City | Draw | Macarthur |
| 2-0 @ 10.1% ( 2-1 @ 9.41% ( 3-0 @ 8.43% ( 1-0 @ 8.07% ( 3-1 @ 7.85% ( 4-0 @ 5.27% ( 4-1 @ 4.91% ( 3-2 @ 3.65% ( 5-0 @ 2.64% ( 5-1 @ 2.46% ( 4-2 @ 2.29% ( 5-2 @ 1.14% ( 6-0 @ 1.1% ( 6-1 @ 1.03% ( Other @ 3.24% Total : 71.59% | 1-1 @ 7.52% ( 2-2 @ 4.38% ( 0-0 @ 3.23% ( 3-3 @ 1.13% ( Other @ 0.18% Total : 16.44% | 1-2 @ 3.5% ( 0-1 @ 3% ( 0-2 @ 1.4% ( 2-3 @ 1.36% ( 1-3 @ 1.09% ( Other @ 1.61% Total : 11.96% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Melbourne CityMelbourne City | 20 | 12 | 5 | 3 | 47 | 25 | 22 | 41 |
| 2 | Adelaide UnitedAdelaide United | 21 | 10 | 7 | 4 | 44 | 34 | 10 | 37 |
| 3 | Western Sydney WanderersWestern Sydney | 21 | 9 | 7 | 5 | 31 | 18 | 13 | 34 |
| 4 | Central Coast MarinersCentral Coast | 21 | 9 | 4 | 8 | 40 | 31 | 9 | 31 |
| 5 | Wellington PhoenixWellington | 21 | 8 | 7 | 6 | 34 | 33 | 1 | 31 |
| 6 | Sydney FCSydney FC | 21 | 8 | 3 | 10 | 28 | 34 | -6 | 27 |
| 7 | Western UnitedWestern Utd | 21 | 7 | 4 | 10 | 27 | 37 | -10 | 25 |
| 8 | Macarthur | 21 | 7 | 4 | 10 | 26 | 39 | -13 | 25 |
| 9 | Newcastle JetsNewcastle Jets | 21 | 7 | 4 | 10 | 26 | 35 | -9 | 25 |
| 10 | Perth GloryPerth Glory | 21 | 6 | 6 | 9 | 28 | 35 | -7 | 24 |
| 11 | Brisbane RoarBrisbane Roar | 21 | 5 | 8 | 8 | 19 | 25 | -6 | 23 |
| 12 | Melbourne VictoryVictory | 20 | 6 | 3 | 11 | 23 | 27 | -4 | 21 |
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