Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Melbourne City win with a probability of 71.6%. A draw had a probability of 16.4% and a win for Macarthur had a probability of 11.96%.
The most likely scoreline for a Melbourne City win was 2-0 with a probability of 10.1%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.41%) and 3-0 (8.43%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.52%), while for a Macarthur win it was 1-2 (3.5%). The actual scoreline of 6-1 was predicted with a 1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Melbourne City would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Melbourne City | Draw | Macarthur | 
| 71.6% (  0.38) | 16.44% (  -0.2) | 11.96% (  -0.18) | 
| Both teams to score 55.62% (  0.19) | 
| Goals | 
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 
| 66.67% (  0.52) | 33.32% (  -0.52) | 
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 | 
| 44.9% (  0.59) | 55.1% (  -0.59) | 
| Melbourne City Goals | 
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 | 
| 91.81% (  0.21) | 8.19% (  -0.21) | 
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 71.32% (  0.52) | 28.67% (  -0.52) | 
| Macarthur Goals | 
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 | 
| 60.58% (  0.06) | 39.41% (  -0.07) | 
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 23.89% (  0.06) | 76.11% (  -0.06) | 
| Score Analysis | 
| Melbourne City | Draw | Macarthur | 
| 2-0 @ 10.1% (  -0.07) 2-1 @ 9.41% (  -0.05) 3-0 @ 8.43% (  0.03) 1-0 @ 8.07% (  -0.14) 3-1 @ 7.85% (  0.04) 4-0 @ 5.27% (  0.07) 4-1 @ 4.91% (  0.08) 3-2 @ 3.65% (  0.03) 5-0 @ 2.64% (  0.06) 5-1 @ 2.46% (  0.06) 4-2 @ 2.29% (  0.04) 5-2 @ 1.14% (  0.03) 6-0 @ 1.1% (  0.04) 6-1 @ 1.03% (  0.04) Other @ 3.24% Total : 71.59% | 1-1 @ 7.52% (  -0.11) 2-2 @ 4.38% (  -0.01) 0-0 @ 3.23% (  -0.09) 3-3 @ 1.13% (  0.01) Other @ 0.18% Total : 16.44% | 1-2 @ 3.5% (  -0.05) 0-1 @ 3% (  -0.08) 0-2 @ 1.4% (  -0.03) 2-3 @ 1.36% (  -0) 1-3 @ 1.09% (  -0.01) Other @ 1.61% Total : 11.96% | 
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Melbourne CityMelbourne City | 20 | 12 | 5 | 3 | 47 | 25 | 22 | 41 | 
| 2 | Adelaide UnitedAdelaide United | 21 | 10 | 7 | 4 | 44 | 34 | 10 | 37 | 
| 3 | Western Sydney WanderersWestern Sydney | 21 | 9 | 7 | 5 | 31 | 18 | 13 | 34 | 
| 4 | Central Coast MarinersCentral Coast | 21 | 9 | 4 | 8 | 40 | 31 | 9 | 31 | 
| 5 | Wellington PhoenixWellington | 21 | 8 | 7 | 6 | 34 | 33 | 1 | 31 | 
| 6 | Sydney FCSydney FC | 21 | 8 | 3 | 10 | 28 | 34 | -6 | 27 | 
| 7 | Western UnitedWestern Utd | 21 | 7 | 4 | 10 | 27 | 37 | -10 | 25 | 
| 8 | Macarthur | 21 | 7 | 4 | 10 | 26 | 39 | -13 | 25 | 
| 9 | Newcastle JetsNewcastle Jets | 21 | 7 | 4 | 10 | 26 | 35 | -9 | 25 | 
| 10 | Perth GloryPerth Glory | 21 | 6 | 6 | 9 | 28 | 35 | -7 | 24 | 
| 11 | Brisbane RoarBrisbane Roar | 21 | 5 | 8 | 8 | 19 | 25 | -6 | 23 | 
| 12 | Melbourne VictoryVictory | 20 | 6 | 3 | 11 | 23 | 27 | -4 | 21 | 
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