

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Melbourne City win with a probability of 68.12%. A draw had a probability of 18.4% and a win for Adelaide United had a probability of 13.51%.
The most likely scoreline for a Melbourne City win was 2-0 with a probability of 10.83%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.75%) and 1-0 (9.58%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.62%), while for an Adelaide United win it was 1-2 (3.88%). The actual scoreline of 3-3 was predicted with a 1% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Melbourne City | Draw | Adelaide United |
| 68.12% ( | 18.37% ( | 13.51% ( |
| Both teams to score 53.15% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 61.2% ( | 38.8% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 38.89% ( | 61.11% ( |
| Melbourne City Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 89.58% ( | 10.42% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 66.02% ( | 33.98% ( |
| Adelaide United Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 59.33% ( | 40.67% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 22.74% ( | 77.26% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| Melbourne City | Draw | Adelaide United |
| 2-0 @ 10.83% ( 2-1 @ 9.75% ( 1-0 @ 9.58% ( 3-0 @ 8.17% ( 3-1 @ 7.35% ( 4-0 @ 4.62% ( 4-1 @ 4.16% ( 3-2 @ 3.31% ( 5-0 @ 2.09% ( 5-1 @ 1.88% 4-2 @ 1.87% ( Other @ 4.51% Total : 68.11% | 1-1 @ 8.62% ( 2-2 @ 4.39% ( 0-0 @ 4.24% ( 3-3 @ 0.99% ( Other @ 0.14% Total : 18.37% | 1-2 @ 3.88% ( 0-1 @ 3.81% ( 0-2 @ 1.72% ( 2-3 @ 1.32% ( 1-3 @ 1.16% ( Other @ 1.63% Total : 13.51% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Western Sydney WanderersWestern Sydney | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 5 | 4 |
| 2 | Brisbane RoarBrisbane Roar | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 4 |
| 3 | Wellington PhoenixWellington | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 4 | Adelaide UnitedAdelaide United | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
| 5 | Melbourne VictoryVictory | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 6 | Western UnitedWestern Utd | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 6 | -4 | 3 |
| 7 | Newcastle JetsNewcastle Jets | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 |
| 8 | Macarthur | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 9 | Perth GloryPerth Glory | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 1 |
| 10 | Melbourne CityMelbourne City | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 |
| 11 | Central Coast MarinersCentral Coast | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -3 | 0 |
| 12 | Sydney FCSydney FC | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 5 | -5 | 0 |
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