Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Adelaide United win with a probability of 57.52%. A draw had a probability of 21.8% and a win for Newcastle Jets had a probability of 20.68%.
The most likely scoreline for an Adelaide United win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.92%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.38%) and 2-0 (9.15%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.16%), while for a Newcastle Jets win it was 1-2 (5.51%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 5.2% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Adelaide United | Draw | Newcastle Jets |
| 57.52% ( | 21.8% ( | 20.68% ( |
| Both teams to score 56.77% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 58.46% ( | 41.53% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 36.06% ( | 63.93% ( |
| Adelaide United Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 85.78% ( | 14.21% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 58.05% ( | 41.94% ( |
| Newcastle Jets Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 66.18% ( | 33.81% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 29.52% ( | 70.48% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| Adelaide United | Draw | Newcastle Jets |
| 2-1 @ 9.92% ( 1-0 @ 9.38% ( 2-0 @ 9.15% ( 3-1 @ 6.45% ( 3-0 @ 5.95% ( 3-2 @ 3.5% ( 4-1 @ 3.15% ( 4-0 @ 2.9% ( 4-2 @ 1.71% ( 5-1 @ 1.23% ( 5-0 @ 1.13% ( Other @ 3.07% Total : 57.52% | 1-1 @ 10.16% ( 2-2 @ 5.38% ( 0-0 @ 4.81% ( 3-3 @ 1.26% ( Other @ 0.18% Total : 21.79% | 1-2 @ 5.51% ( 0-1 @ 5.21% ( 0-2 @ 2.83% ( 1-3 @ 1.99% ( 2-3 @ 1.94% ( 0-3 @ 1.02% ( Other @ 2.18% Total : 20.68% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Melbourne CityMelbourne City | 19 | 12 | 4 | 3 | 46 | 24 | 22 | 40 |
| 2 | Adelaide UnitedAdelaide United | 20 | 9 | 7 | 4 | 39 | 33 | 6 | 34 |
| 3 | Central Coast MarinersCentral Coast | 20 | 9 | 4 | 7 | 40 | 29 | 11 | 31 |
| 4 | Western Sydney WanderersWestern Sydney | 20 | 8 | 7 | 5 | 27 | 18 | 9 | 31 |
| 5 | Wellington PhoenixWellington | 20 | 8 | 7 | 5 | 33 | 28 | 5 | 31 |
| 6 | Sydney FCSydney FC | 20 | 8 | 3 | 9 | 28 | 30 | -2 | 27 |
| 7 | Newcastle JetsNewcastle Jets | 20 | 7 | 3 | 10 | 24 | 33 | -9 | 24 |
| 8 | Macarthur | 20 | 7 | 3 | 10 | 25 | 38 | -13 | 24 |
| 9 | Perth GloryPerth Glory | 20 | 6 | 5 | 9 | 26 | 33 | -7 | 23 |
| 10 | Western UnitedWestern Utd | 19 | 6 | 4 | 9 | 25 | 35 | -10 | 22 |
| 11 | Brisbane RoarBrisbane Roar | 20 | 4 | 8 | 8 | 18 | 25 | -7 | 20 |
| 12 | Melbourne VictoryVictory | 18 | 5 | 3 | 10 | 20 | 25 | -5 | 18 |
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