

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sydney FC win with a probability of 42.33%. A win for Wellington Phoenix had a probability of 34.23% and a draw had a probability of 23.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sydney FC win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.83%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.05%) and 0-2 (5.92%). The likeliest Wellington Phoenix win was 2-1 (7.84%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.5%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 6.3% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Wellington Phoenix | Draw | Sydney FC |
| 34.23% ( | 23.44% ( | 42.33% ( |
| Both teams to score 63.05% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 61.41% ( | 38.59% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 39.11% ( | 60.89% ( |
| Wellington Phoenix Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 77.49% ( | 22.51% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 43.92% ( | 56.08% ( |
| Sydney FC Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 81.37% ( | 18.63% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 50.06% ( | 49.94% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| Wellington Phoenix | Draw | Sydney FC |
| 2-1 @ 7.84% ( 1-0 @ 6.26% ( 2-0 @ 4.66% ( 3-1 @ 3.9% ( 3-2 @ 3.27% ( 3-0 @ 2.32% ( 4-1 @ 1.45% ( 4-2 @ 1.22% ( Other @ 3.32% Total : 34.23% | 1-1 @ 10.5% ( 2-2 @ 6.58% ( 0-0 @ 4.19% ( 3-3 @ 1.83% ( Other @ 0.32% Total : 23.43% | 1-2 @ 8.83% ( 0-1 @ 7.05% ( 0-2 @ 5.92% ( 1-3 @ 4.95% ( 2-3 @ 3.69% ( 0-3 @ 3.32% ( 1-4 @ 2.08% ( 2-4 @ 1.55% ( 0-4 @ 1.39% ( Other @ 3.56% Total : 42.33% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Melbourne CityMelbourne City | 26 | 16 | 7 | 3 | 61 | 32 | 29 | 55 |
| 2 | Central Coast MarinersCentral Coast | 26 | 13 | 5 | 8 | 55 | 35 | 20 | 44 |
| 3 | Adelaide UnitedAdelaide United | 26 | 11 | 9 | 6 | 53 | 46 | 7 | 42 |
| 4 | Western Sydney WanderersWestern Sydney | 26 | 11 | 8 | 7 | 43 | 27 | 16 | 41 |
| 5 | Sydney FCSydney FC | 26 | 11 | 5 | 10 | 40 | 39 | 1 | 38 |
| 6 | Wellington PhoenixWellington | 26 | 9 | 8 | 9 | 39 | 45 | -6 | 35 |
| 7 | Western UnitedWestern Utd | 26 | 9 | 5 | 12 | 34 | 47 | -13 | 32 |
| 8 | Brisbane RoarBrisbane Roar | 26 | 7 | 9 | 10 | 26 | 33 | -7 | 30 |
| 9 | Perth GloryPerth Glory | 26 | 7 | 8 | 11 | 36 | 46 | -10 | 29 |
| 10 | Newcastle JetsNewcastle Jets | 26 | 8 | 5 | 13 | 30 | 45 | -15 | 29 |
| 11 | Melbourne VictoryVictory | 26 | 8 | 4 | 14 | 29 | 34 | -5 | 28 |
| 12 | Macarthur | 26 | 7 | 5 | 14 | 31 | 48 | -17 | 26 |
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