Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sydney FC win with a probability of 44.25%. A win for Melbourne Victory had a probability of 30.98% and a draw had a probability of 24.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sydney FC win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.17%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.13%) and 2-0 (7.19%). The likeliest Melbourne Victory win was 0-1 (7.44%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.66%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 9.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Sydney FC in this match and our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted the win for Sydney FC.
| Result | ||
| Sydney FC | Draw | Melbourne Victory |
| 44.25% ( | 24.78% ( | 30.98% ( |
| Both teams to score 56.93% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 53.96% ( | 46.05% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 31.65% ( | 68.35% ( |
| Sydney FC Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 79.13% ( | 20.87% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 46.42% ( | 53.58% ( |
| Melbourne Victory Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 71.95% ( | 28.05% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 36.3% ( | 63.7% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| Sydney FC | Draw | Melbourne Victory |
| 1-0 @ 9.17% ( 2-1 @ 9.13% ( 2-0 @ 7.19% ( 3-1 @ 4.77% ( 3-0 @ 3.75% ( 3-2 @ 3.03% ( 4-1 @ 1.87% ( 4-0 @ 1.47% ( 4-2 @ 1.19% ( Other @ 2.67% Total : 44.25% | 1-1 @ 11.66% ( 0-0 @ 5.86% ( 2-2 @ 5.81% ( 3-3 @ 1.29% ( Other @ 0.17% Total : 24.78% | 0-1 @ 7.44% ( 1-2 @ 7.41% ( 0-2 @ 4.73% ( 1-3 @ 3.14% ( 2-3 @ 2.46% ( 0-3 @ 2.01% ( 1-4 @ 1% ( Other @ 2.79% Total : 30.98% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Melbourne CityMelbourne City | 25 | 15 | 7 | 3 | 58 | 30 | 28 | 52 |
| 2 | Adelaide UnitedAdelaide United | 25 | 11 | 9 | 5 | 52 | 42 | 10 | 42 |
| 3 | Central Coast MarinersCentral Coast | 25 | 12 | 5 | 8 | 51 | 34 | 17 | 41 |
| 4 | Western Sydney WanderersWestern Sydney | 25 | 11 | 8 | 6 | 41 | 24 | 17 | 41 |
| 5 | Sydney FCSydney FC | 25 | 10 | 5 | 10 | 38 | 39 | -1 | 35 |
| 6 | Wellington PhoenixWellington | 25 | 8 | 8 | 9 | 38 | 45 | -7 | 32 |
| 7 | Perth GloryPerth Glory | 25 | 7 | 8 | 10 | 35 | 44 | -9 | 29 |
| 8 | Newcastle JetsNewcastle Jets | 25 | 8 | 5 | 12 | 30 | 43 | -13 | 29 |
| 9 | Western UnitedWestern Utd | 25 | 8 | 5 | 12 | 32 | 46 | -14 | 29 |
| 10 | Melbourne VictoryVictory | 25 | 8 | 4 | 13 | 29 | 33 | -4 | 28 |
| 11 | Brisbane RoarBrisbane Roar | 25 | 6 | 9 | 10 | 25 | 33 | -8 | 27 |
| 12 | Macarthur | 25 | 7 | 5 | 13 | 31 | 47 | -16 | 26 |
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