Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Melbourne City win with a probability of 54.5%. A draw had a probability of 23.3% and a win for Melbourne Victory had a probability of 22.24%.
The most likely scoreline for a Melbourne City win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.45%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.82%) and 0-2 (9.33%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.01%), while for a Melbourne Victory win it was 1-0 (6.17%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 1.8% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Melbourne Victory | Draw | Melbourne City |
| 22.24% ( | 23.26% ( | 54.5% ( |
| Both teams to score 54.17% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 53.93% ( | 46.08% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 31.63% ( | 68.38% ( |
| Melbourne Victory Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 65.11% ( | 34.89% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 28.37% ( | 71.63% ( |
| Melbourne City Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 83.2% ( | 16.8% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 53.24% ( | 46.77% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| Melbourne Victory | Draw | Melbourne City |
| 1-0 @ 6.17% ( 2-1 @ 5.8% ( 2-0 @ 3.25% ( 3-1 @ 2.03% ( 3-2 @ 1.81% ( 3-0 @ 1.14% ( Other @ 2.04% Total : 22.24% | 1-1 @ 11.01% ( 0-0 @ 5.86% ( 2-2 @ 5.17% ( 3-3 @ 1.08% ( Other @ 0.14% Total : 23.26% | 0-1 @ 10.45% ( 1-2 @ 9.82% ( 0-2 @ 9.33% ( 1-3 @ 5.84% ( 0-3 @ 5.55% ( 2-3 @ 3.07% ( 1-4 @ 2.6% ( 0-4 @ 2.47% ( 2-4 @ 1.37% ( 1-5 @ 0.93% ( Other @ 3.06% Total : 54.49% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Melbourne CityMelbourne City | 22 | 13 | 6 | 3 | 50 | 27 | 23 | 45 |
| 2 | Adelaide UnitedAdelaide United | 22 | 11 | 7 | 4 | 47 | 36 | 11 | 40 |
| 3 | Central Coast MarinersCentral Coast | 22 | 10 | 4 | 8 | 44 | 32 | 12 | 34 |
| 4 | Western Sydney WanderersWestern Sydney | 22 | 9 | 7 | 6 | 33 | 21 | 12 | 34 |
| 5 | Wellington PhoenixWellington | 22 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 35 | 35 | 0 | 31 |
| 6 | Sydney FCSydney FC | 22 | 8 | 4 | 10 | 31 | 37 | -6 | 28 |
| 7 | Perth GloryPerth Glory | 22 | 7 | 6 | 9 | 30 | 36 | -6 | 27 |
| 8 | Newcastle JetsNewcastle Jets | 22 | 7 | 5 | 10 | 27 | 36 | -9 | 26 |
| 9 | Western UnitedWestern Utd | 22 | 7 | 5 | 10 | 30 | 40 | -10 | 26 |
| 10 | Macarthur | 22 | 7 | 4 | 11 | 27 | 41 | -14 | 25 |
| 11 | Melbourne VictoryVictory | 22 | 7 | 3 | 12 | 26 | 30 | -4 | 24 |
| 12 | Brisbane RoarBrisbane Roar | 22 | 5 | 8 | 9 | 20 | 29 | -9 | 23 |
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