Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Melbourne City win with a probability of 67.3%. A draw had a probability of 19.1% and a win for Perth Glory had a probability of 13.59%.
The most likely scoreline for a Melbourne City win was 0-2 with a probability of 11.48%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (10.64%) and 1-2 (9.78%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.06%), while for a Perth Glory win it was 1-0 (4.2%). The actual scoreline of 2-4 was predicted with a 1.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Melbourne City would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Perth Glory | Draw | Melbourne City |
| 13.59% ( | 19.12% ( | 67.3% ( |
| Both teams to score 50.71% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 57.89% ( | 42.11% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 35.49% ( | 64.51% ( |
| Perth Glory Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 57.34% ( | 42.66% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 20.99% ( | 79.01% ( |
| Melbourne City Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 88.44% ( | 11.56% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 63.5% ( | 36.5% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| Perth Glory | Draw | Melbourne City |
| 1-0 @ 4.2% 2-1 @ 3.86% ( 2-0 @ 1.79% ( 3-2 @ 1.18% ( 3-1 @ 1.1% ( Other @ 1.46% Total : 13.59% | 1-1 @ 9.06% ( 0-0 @ 4.93% ( 2-2 @ 4.17% ( Other @ 0.96% Total : 19.12% | 0-2 @ 11.48% ( 0-1 @ 10.64% ( 1-2 @ 9.78% ( 0-3 @ 8.26% ( 1-3 @ 7.03% ( 0-4 @ 4.45% ( 1-4 @ 3.79% ( 2-3 @ 3% ( 0-5 @ 1.92% ( 1-5 @ 1.64% ( 2-4 @ 1.62% ( Other @ 3.69% Total : 67.29% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Melbourne CityMelbourne City | 20 | 12 | 5 | 3 | 47 | 25 | 22 | 41 |
| 2 | Adelaide UnitedAdelaide United | 22 | 11 | 7 | 4 | 47 | 36 | 11 | 40 |
| 3 | Central Coast MarinersCentral Coast | 22 | 10 | 4 | 8 | 44 | 32 | 12 | 34 |
| 4 | Western Sydney WanderersWestern Sydney | 22 | 9 | 7 | 6 | 33 | 21 | 12 | 34 |
| 5 | Wellington PhoenixWellington | 22 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 35 | 35 | 0 | 31 |
| 6 | Sydney FCSydney FC | 22 | 8 | 4 | 10 | 31 | 37 | -6 | 28 |
| 7 | Perth GloryPerth Glory | 22 | 7 | 6 | 9 | 30 | 36 | -6 | 27 |
| 8 | Western UnitedWestern Utd | 22 | 7 | 5 | 10 | 30 | 40 | -10 | 26 |
| 9 | Newcastle JetsNewcastle Jets | 21 | 7 | 4 | 10 | 26 | 35 | -9 | 25 |
| 10 | Macarthur | 22 | 7 | 4 | 11 | 27 | 41 | -14 | 25 |
| 11 | Melbourne VictoryVictory | 21 | 7 | 3 | 11 | 25 | 28 | -3 | 24 |
| 12 | Brisbane RoarBrisbane Roar | 22 | 5 | 8 | 9 | 20 | 29 | -9 | 23 |
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