

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Wellington Phoenix win with a probability of 50.93%. A win for Perth Glory had a probability of 24.91% and a draw had a probability of 24.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Wellington Phoenix win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.38%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.63%) and 2-0 (8.74%). The likeliest Perth Glory win was 0-1 (6.81%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.45%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 5.3% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Wellington Phoenix | Draw | Perth Glory |
| 50.93% ( | 24.16% ( | 24.91% ( |
| Both teams to score 54.37% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 52.69% ( | 47.31% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 30.47% ( | 69.53% ( |
| Wellington Phoenix Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 81.41% ( | 18.59% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 50.13% ( | 49.87% ( |
| Perth Glory Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 66.79% ( | 33.21% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 30.18% ( | 69.82% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| Wellington Phoenix | Draw | Perth Glory |
| 1-0 @ 10.38% ( 2-1 @ 9.63% ( 2-0 @ 8.74% ( 3-1 @ 5.4% ( 3-0 @ 4.9% ( 3-2 @ 2.98% ( 4-1 @ 2.27% ( 4-0 @ 2.06% ( 4-2 @ 1.25% ( Other @ 3.3% Total : 50.92% | 1-1 @ 11.45% ( 0-0 @ 6.17% ( 2-2 @ 5.31% ( 3-3 @ 1.09% ( Other @ 0.14% Total : 24.16% | 0-1 @ 6.81% ( 1-2 @ 6.31% ( 0-2 @ 3.75% ( 1-3 @ 2.32% ( 2-3 @ 1.95% ( 0-3 @ 1.38% ( Other @ 2.39% Total : 24.91% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Melbourne VictoryVictory | 12 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 25 | 14 | 11 | 24 |
| 2 | Wellington PhoenixWellington | 12 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 22 | 15 | 7 | 24 |
| 3 | Western Sydney WanderersWestern Sydney | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 20 | 12 | 8 | 21 |
| 4 | Central Coast MarinersCentral Coast | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 23 | 18 | 5 | 18 |
| 5 | Adelaide UnitedAdelaide United | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 27 | 23 | 4 | 18 |
| 6 | Melbourne CityMelbourne City | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 23 | 19 | 4 | 18 |
| 7 | Macarthur | 13 | 4 | 6 | 3 | 22 | 23 | -1 | 18 |
| 8 | Brisbane RoarBrisbane Roar | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 20 | 27 | -7 | 17 |
| 9 | Sydney FCSydney FC | 12 | 5 | 0 | 7 | 20 | 24 | -4 | 15 |
| 10 | Newcastle JetsNewcastle Jets | 12 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 20 | 23 | -3 | 13 |
| 11 | Perth GloryPerth Glory | 12 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 21 | 28 | -7 | 8 |
| 12 | Western UnitedWestern Utd | 12 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 11 | 28 | -17 | 7 |
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