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Championship header 2

League One
Derby logo
League One | Gameweek 28
Jan 15, 2024 at 8pm UK
Pride Park Stadium
Burton Albion

Derby
3 - 2
Burton Albion

Barkhuizen (29'), Collins (49'), Hourihane (90+3')
FT(HT: 1-0)
Seddon (54'), Hugill (65')
Oshilaja (64')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Monday's League One clash between Derby County and Burton Albion, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Derby County

All competitions
League One
Last Game: Derby 0-1 Bradford
Tuesday, January 9 at 7pm in EFL Trophy

Burton Albion

All competitions
League One
Last Game: Blackpool 2-1 Burton Albion
Wednesday, January 10 at 7pm in EFL Trophy

We said: Derby County 2-0 Burton Albion

 Derby cruised to a 3-0 win in the reverse fixture in August, and we think that they will claim another win against Burton to move into the League One promotion places. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Derby County win with a probability of 70.39%. A draw had a probability of 17.7% and a win for Burton Albion had a probability of 11.95%.

The most likely scoreline for a Derby County win was 2-0 with a probability of 11.52%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (10.01%) and 2-1 (9.6%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.34%), while for a Burton Albion win it was 0-1 (3.63%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 3.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Derby County would win this match.

Result
Derby CountyDrawBurton Albion
70.39% (-0.0060000000000002 -0.01) 17.65% (0.0030000000000001 0) 11.95% (0.0030000000000001 0)
Both teams to score 50.86% (-0.0039999999999978 -0)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
60.62% (-0.010000000000005 -0.01)39.37% (0.010000000000005 0.01)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
38.28% (-0.011000000000003 -0.01)61.71% (0.011000000000003 0.01)
Derby County Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
89.99% (-0.0040000000000049 -0)10.01% (0.0050000000000008 0.01)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
66.95% (-0.0099999999999909 -0.01)33.05% (0.009999999999998 0.01)
Burton Albion Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
56.51% (-0.0019999999999953 -0)43.48% (0.0030000000000001 0)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
20.3% (-0.004999999999999 -0)79.7% (0.0050000000000097 0.01)
Score Analysis
    Derby County 70.38%
    Burton Albion 11.95%
    Draw 17.65%
Derby CountyDrawBurton Albion
2-0 @ 11.52%
1-0 @ 10.01%
2-1 @ 9.6% (0.0010000000000012 0)
3-0 @ 8.85% (-0.00099999999999945 -0)
3-1 @ 7.37% (-0.0010000000000003 -0)
4-0 @ 5.09% (-0.0010000000000003 -0)
4-1 @ 4.24% (-0.0010000000000003 -0)
3-2 @ 3.07% (-0.00099999999999989 -0)
5-0 @ 2.34% (-0.00099999999999989 -0)
5-1 @ 1.95% (-0.00099999999999989 -0)
4-2 @ 1.77% (-0.0010000000000001 -0)
Other @ 4.58%
Total : 70.38%
1-1 @ 8.34% (0.0020000000000007 0)
0-0 @ 4.35% (0.0020000000000007 0)
2-2 @ 4%
Other @ 0.96%
Total : 17.65%
0-1 @ 3.63% (0.0019999999999998 0)
1-2 @ 3.47% (0.0010000000000003 0)
0-2 @ 1.51%
2-3 @ 1.11%
1-3 @ 0.96%
Other @ 1.27%
Total : 11.95%

How you voted: Derby vs Burton Albion

Derby County
82.9%
Draw
8.6%
Burton Albion
8.6%
35
Head to Head
Aug 12, 2023 3pm
Gameweek 2
Burton Albion
0-3
Derby

Seddon (2'), Maamria (3')
Collins (6'), Hourihane (78'), Washington (84')
Mendez-Laing (45+2'), Hourihane (66'), Cashin (90+6')
> Preview
Apr 22, 2023 3pm
Gameweek 44
Derby
1-0
Burton Albion
McGoldrick (63' pen.)
Dec 10, 2022 2pm
Gameweek 21
Burton Albion
1-1
Derby
Adeboyejo (79')
Collins (23')
> Preview
Jul 20, 2019 3pm
Pre-season Friendlies
Burton Albion
2-5
Derby
Brayford (22'), Fraser (51')
Waghorn (16', 28', 37'), Bennett (47'), Bird (93')
Apr 14, 2018 3pm
Burton Albion
3-1
Derby
Boyce (24'), Murphy (44'), Akins (68')
Buxton (39'), Brayford (63'), Akpan (77')
Nugent (29')
Huddlestone (49')
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
> View full version> Yesterday's results
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
CPortsmouth462813578413797
3Bolton WanderersBolton462512986513587
4Peterborough UnitedPeterborough462591289612884
5Oxford UnitedOxford Utd4622111379562377
6Barnsley4621131282641876
7Lincoln CityLincoln4620141265402574
8Blackpool4621101565481773
9Stevenage4619141357461171
10Wycombe WanderersWycombe461714156055565
11Leyton Orient461811175355-265
12Wigan AthleticWigan462010166356762
13Exeter CityExeter461710194661-1561
14Northampton TownNorthampton46179205766-960
15Bristol Rovers46169215268-1657
16Charlton AthleticCharlton461120156465-153
17Reading461611196870-253
18Cambridge UnitedCambridge461212223961-2248
19Shrewsbury TownShrewsbury46139243567-3248
20Burton Albion461210243967-2846
RCheltenham TownCheltenham46128264165-2444
RFleetwood TownFleetwood461013234972-2343
RPort Vale461011254174-3341
RCarlisle UnitedCarlisle4679304181-4030
> League One Full Table


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