Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Melbourne City win with a probability of 59.9%. A draw had a probability of 20.9% and a win for Wellington Phoenix had a probability of 19.19%.
The most likely scoreline for a Melbourne City win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.93%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (9.25%) and 0-1 (9.03%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.69%), while for a Wellington Phoenix win it was 2-1 (5.2%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 6.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Melbourne City would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Wellington Phoenix | Draw | Melbourne City | 
| 19.19% (  0.11) | 20.91% (  0.06) | 59.9% (  -0.17) | 
| Both teams to score 57.32% (  -0.03) | 
| Goals | 
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 
| 60.36% (  -0.13) | 39.63% (  0.13) | 
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 | 
| 38.02% (  -0.13) | 61.98% (  0.13) | 
| Wellington Phoenix Goals | 
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 | 
| 65.79% (  0.04) | 34.21% (  -0.04) | 
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 29.09% (  0.04) | 70.9% (  -0.04) | 
| Melbourne City Goals | 
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 | 
| 87.12% (  -0.09) | 12.87% (  0.09) | 
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 60.73% (  -0.18) | 39.27% (  0.18) | 
| Score Analysis | 
| Wellington Phoenix | Draw | Melbourne City | 
| 2-1 @ 5.2% (  0.02) 1-0 @ 4.73% (  0.03) 2-0 @ 2.53% (  0.02) 3-2 @ 1.9% (  0) 3-1 @ 1.86% (  0.01) 3-0 @ 0.91% (  0.01) Other @ 2.06% Total : 19.19% | 1-1 @ 9.69% (  0.03) 2-2 @ 5.32% (  0.01) 0-0 @ 4.4% (  0.03) 3-3 @ 1.3% (  -0) Other @ 0.2% Total : 20.91% | 1-2 @ 9.93% (  0) 0-2 @ 9.25% (  -0.01) 0-1 @ 9.03% (  0.02) 1-3 @ 6.78% (  -0.02) 0-3 @ 6.32% (  -0.03) 2-3 @ 3.64% (  -0.01) 1-4 @ 3.48% (  -0.02) 0-4 @ 3.24% (  -0.02) 2-4 @ 1.86% (  -0.01) 1-5 @ 1.43% (  -0.01) 0-5 @ 1.33% (  -0.01) Other @ 3.62% Total : 59.9% | 
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Melbourne CityMelbourne City | 23 | 14 | 6 | 3 | 54 | 28 | 26 | 48 | 
| 2 | Adelaide UnitedAdelaide United | 23 | 11 | 8 | 4 | 48 | 37 | 11 | 41 | 
| 3 | Central Coast MarinersCentral Coast | 23 | 11 | 4 | 8 | 47 | 32 | 15 | 37 | 
| 4 | Western Sydney WanderersWestern Sydney | 23 | 9 | 8 | 6 | 35 | 23 | 12 | 35 | 
| 5 | Wellington PhoenixWellington | 23 | 8 | 7 | 8 | 36 | 39 | -3 | 31 | 
| 6 | Sydney FCSydney FC | 23 | 8 | 5 | 10 | 32 | 38 | -6 | 29 | 
| 7 | Perth GloryPerth Glory | 23 | 7 | 7 | 9 | 30 | 36 | -6 | 28 | 
| 8 | Brisbane RoarBrisbane Roar | 23 | 6 | 8 | 9 | 23 | 29 | -6 | 26 | 
| 9 | Newcastle JetsNewcastle Jets | 23 | 7 | 5 | 11 | 27 | 39 | -12 | 26 | 
| 10 | Western UnitedWestern Utd | 23 | 7 | 5 | 11 | 30 | 43 | -13 | 26 | 
| 11 | Macarthur | 23 | 7 | 5 | 11 | 29 | 43 | -14 | 26 | 
| 12 | Melbourne VictoryVictory | 23 | 7 | 4 | 12 | 26 | 30 | -4 | 25 | 
| > Full Version | |||||||||
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
