Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Melbourne City win with a probability of 59.9%. A draw had a probability of 20.9% and a win for Wellington Phoenix had a probability of 19.19%.
The most likely scoreline for a Melbourne City win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.93%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (9.25%) and 0-1 (9.03%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.69%), while for a Wellington Phoenix win it was 2-1 (5.2%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 6.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Melbourne City would win this match.
Result | ||
Wellington Phoenix | Draw | Melbourne City |
19.19% (![]() | 20.91% (![]() | 59.9% (![]() |
Both teams to score 57.32% (![]() |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
60.36% (![]() | 39.63% (![]() |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
38.02% (![]() | 61.98% (![]() |
Wellington Phoenix Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
65.79% (![]() | 34.21% (![]() |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
29.09% (![]() | 70.9% (![]() |
Melbourne City Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
87.12% (![]() | 12.87% (![]() |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
60.73% (![]() | 39.27% (![]() |
Score Analysis |
Wellington Phoenix | Draw | Melbourne City |
2-1 @ 5.2% (![]() 1-0 @ 4.73% ( ![]() 2-0 @ 2.53% ( ![]() 3-2 @ 1.9% ( ![]() 3-1 @ 1.86% ( ![]() 3-0 @ 0.91% ( ![]() Other @ 2.06% Total : 19.19% | 1-1 @ 9.69% (![]() 2-2 @ 5.32% ( ![]() 0-0 @ 4.4% ( ![]() 3-3 @ 1.3% ( ![]() Other @ 0.2% Total : 20.91% | 1-2 @ 9.93% (![]() 0-2 @ 9.25% ( ![]() 0-1 @ 9.03% ( ![]() 1-3 @ 6.78% ( ![]() 0-3 @ 6.32% ( ![]() 2-3 @ 3.64% ( ![]() 1-4 @ 3.48% ( ![]() 0-4 @ 3.24% ( ![]() 2-4 @ 1.86% ( ![]() 1-5 @ 1.43% ( ![]() 0-5 @ 1.33% ( ![]() Other @ 3.62% Total : 59.9% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Melbourne CityMelbourne City | 23 | 14 | 6 | 3 | 54 | 28 | 26 | 48 |
2 | Adelaide UnitedAdelaide United | 23 | 11 | 8 | 4 | 48 | 37 | 11 | 41 |
3 | Central Coast MarinersCentral Coast | 23 | 11 | 4 | 8 | 47 | 32 | 15 | 37 |
4 | Western Sydney WanderersWestern Sydney | 23 | 9 | 8 | 6 | 35 | 23 | 12 | 35 |
5 | Wellington PhoenixWellington | 23 | 8 | 7 | 8 | 36 | 39 | -3 | 31 |
6 | Sydney FCSydney FC | 23 | 8 | 5 | 10 | 32 | 38 | -6 | 29 |
7 | Perth GloryPerth Glory | 23 | 7 | 7 | 9 | 30 | 36 | -6 | 28 |
8 | Brisbane RoarBrisbane Roar | 23 | 6 | 8 | 9 | 23 | 29 | -6 | 26 |
9 | Newcastle JetsNewcastle Jets | 23 | 7 | 5 | 11 | 27 | 39 | -12 | 26 |
10 | Western UnitedWestern Utd | 23 | 7 | 5 | 11 | 30 | 43 | -13 | 26 |
11 | Macarthur | 23 | 7 | 5 | 11 | 29 | 43 | -14 | 26 |
12 | Melbourne VictoryVictory | 23 | 7 | 4 | 12 | 26 | 30 | -4 | 25 |
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