Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Wellington Phoenix win with a probability of 46.07%. A win for Western United had a probability of 30.08% and a draw had a probability of 23.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Wellington Phoenix win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.28%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.35%) and 2-0 (7.04%). The likeliest Western United win was 1-2 (7.27%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.01%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 2.7% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Wellington Phoenix | Draw | Western United |
| 46.07% ( | 23.84% ( | 30.08% ( |
| Both teams to score 59.7% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 57.79% ( | 42.2% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 35.39% ( | 64.61% ( |
| Wellington Phoenix Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 81.46% ( | 18.54% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 50.22% ( | 49.78% ( |
| Western United Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 73.28% ( | 26.72% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 38.01% ( | 61.98% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| Wellington Phoenix | Draw | Western United |
| 2-1 @ 9.28% ( 1-0 @ 8.35% ( 2-0 @ 7.04% ( 3-1 @ 5.22% ( 3-0 @ 3.95% ( 3-2 @ 3.44% ( 4-1 @ 2.2% ( 4-0 @ 1.67% ( 4-2 @ 1.45% ( Other @ 3.48% Total : 46.07% | 1-1 @ 11.01% ( 2-2 @ 6.13% ( 0-0 @ 4.95% ( 3-3 @ 1.51% ( Other @ 0.23% Total : 23.84% | 1-2 @ 7.27% ( 0-1 @ 6.54% ( 0-2 @ 4.31% ( 1-3 @ 3.2% ( 2-3 @ 2.7% ( 0-3 @ 1.9% ( 1-4 @ 1.06% ( Other @ 3.12% Total : 30.09% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Melbourne CityMelbourne City | 15 | 10 | 4 | 1 | 37 | 14 | 23 | 34 |
| 2 | Central Coast MarinersCentral Coast | 16 | 8 | 2 | 6 | 33 | 23 | 10 | 26 |
| 3 | Adelaide UnitedAdelaide United | 16 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 26 | 24 | 2 | 26 |
| 4 | Western Sydney WanderersWestern Sydney | 16 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 17 | 13 | 4 | 24 |
| 5 | Wellington PhoenixWellington | 17 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 29 | 26 | 3 | 24 |
| 6 | Sydney FCSydney FC | 16 | 7 | 2 | 7 | 24 | 25 | -1 | 23 |
| 7 | Newcastle JetsNewcastle Jets | 16 | 6 | 3 | 7 | 19 | 24 | -5 | 21 |
| 8 | Macarthur | 16 | 6 | 3 | 7 | 21 | 27 | -6 | 21 |
| 9 | Perth GloryPerth Glory | 16 | 5 | 4 | 7 | 21 | 27 | -6 | 19 |
| 10 | Brisbane RoarBrisbane Roar | 16 | 3 | 7 | 6 | 12 | 18 | -6 | 16 |
| 11 | Western UnitedWestern Utd | 17 | 4 | 4 | 9 | 20 | 33 | -13 | 16 |
| 12 | Melbourne VictoryVictory | 15 | 4 | 2 | 9 | 16 | 21 | -5 | 14 |
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